FX Morning Update USD INR September 7, 2023

USDINR opened at 83.01 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.99-83.17 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.14, gain of 9 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.05. Rupee declined as Oil prices rose and USD Index rallied.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.09 on 07/09. Sep USD/INR closed at 83.18, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.12. Sep Euro/INR closed at 89.50, GBP/INR at 104.41 and Yen/INR at 56.68. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.67% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 594 bn as on Aug 25 th. FX reserves declined by USD 8 bn.

In Aug, FPI’S have bought Rs 17041 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5009 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 36 points (0.18%) y’day. US S&P declined 31 points (0.70%) . Nikkei climbed 0.80% and Hang Seng climbed 0.03%.

Euro is now at 1.0730, Pound at 1.2506, Yen at 147.59.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1944 and WT1Crude at USD 87/Brent at USD 90.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.29% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.19%.

Economic news: Rupee continued to be under pressure, tracking broad rally in USD Index.

US services data was stronger than expected, aiding further USD rally. ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for August (54.5 percent) corresponds to a 1.6-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

ECB Governing council member said that Euro interest rates are close to peak. He added that in fight against inflation, maintaining rates for a sufficiently long period now counts for more than further significant rises”.

US and Asian markets were down as tech stocks declined steeply following Chinese direction to Govt employees to avoid using Apple Phones. US law makers pressed for curbs on export of technology to China.

Data highlights: – US ISM Services PMI rose from 52.7 to 54.5 in August, comfortably above expectation of 52.6. 

–Eurozone retail sales volume fell -0.2% mom in July, matched expectations.

Thursday’s calendar : US Weekly jobless claims and CPI

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.84. 50 day moving average is at 82.56.200 day moving average is at 82.26. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.93/82.86/82.78 and important resistance is at 83.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Sep contract are:

PP: 83.10, S1:82.96, S2:82.76, R1:83.30, R2:83.34.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 1 month.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0925/1.1065/1.1140/1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0765/1.0635. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

GBP/USD: The pair is still above 200 day moving averages, but below 50 and 100 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2350. Important resistance is at 1.2820/1.30/1.3145.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 137.35. Important resistance is at 147 and support is at 144/142.