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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • October 5, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR October 5, 2023

USDINR opened at 83.23 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.18-83.27 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.23, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.19.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.26 on 04/10. Oct USD/INR closed at 83.33, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.30. Oct Euro/INR closed at 87.70, GBP/INR at 101.18 and Yen/INR at 56.23. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.82% p.a.  FX reserves declined by USD 3 bn and stood at USD 590 bn as on Sept 22 nd.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (04/10)

USDINR

83.26

EURINR

87.08

GBPINR

100.41

JPYINR

55.78

In Sep, FPI’S have sold Rs 16026 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 768 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 92 points (0.47%) y’day. US S&P climbed 34 points (0.81%) . Nikkei declined 2.17% and Hang Seng declined 0.52%.

Euro is now at 1.0526, Pound at 1.2160, Yen at 148.41.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1827 and WT1Crude at USD 89/Brent at USD 91.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.71% and 3 m libor closed at 5.65%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.25%.

Economic news: US private sector witnessed a notable slowdown in employment growth last month, as revealed by the ADP’s latest report. A mere addition of 89k jobs in September fell significantly short of the anticipated 155k.

ECB Chief said that current interest rates are at the level to return inflation to target in a timely manner. She also laid out three criteria for future decisions. She detailed these criteria as: “the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.”

Data highlights: – US ADP employment report showed that private sector added only 89 k jobs, ISM(services) and factory orders

-EU PMI(services-final) climbed marginally to 48.7, PPI climbed 0.6% m/m and retail sales declined 1.2% m/m.

-UK PMI(services) climbed to 49.3.

Thursday’s calendar : US Weekly jobless claims

-UK PMI(construction)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.27

83.18

EUR/USD

1.0526

  

1.0532

1.0452

GBP/USD

1.2160

  

1.2177

1.2037

USD/JPY

148.41

  

149.32

148.74

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0497

1.0542

1.0577

1.0622

1.0462

1.0417

1.0382

GBP/USD

1.2117

1.2197

1.2258

1.2338

1.2057

1.1976

1.1916

USD/JPY

149.01

149.28

149.59

149.86

148.70

148.43

148.11

USD/INR

83.22

83.27

83.31

 

83.17

83.13

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0250

1.0740

DN

SIDE>1.0740

GBP/USD

1.18

1.2550/1.2620

DN

SIDE>1.2550

USD/JPY

145.90

151

UP

SIDE<145.90

USD/INR

82.80

83.35/83.47

UP

SIDE<82.78

USD/CHF

0.8820

0.9150

UP

SIDE<0.8820

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.12. 50 day moving average is at 82.82.200 day moving average is at 82.41. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Oct contract are:

PP: 83.32, S1:83.28, S2:83.24, R1:83.36, R2:83.40.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 82.80/82.75 for 1 month.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0740/1.0945. Next major support is at 1.0250. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.18. Important resistance is at 1.2550/1.2620.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 144.40. Important resistance is at 151 and support is at 145.90/144.40.

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