FX RATES AND USDINR FWDS :
FX Rates and USD INR Forward Rate October 16, 2023
Major developments:
USD is now at 83.25. USDINR opened at 83.23. Fwd premia – 1 year fwd premia is at 1.72% p.a.
-Indian Sep Exports declined 2.6% y/y to USD 34.47 bn. Imports declined 15% y/y to USD
53.84 bn. Trade deficit moderated to USD 19.4 bn in Sept from USD 21.7 bn in Aug.
-US retail sales is the focus event for the week.
-Crude Oil climbed past US 90 again on fears of escalation in Israel-Hamas conflict.
USDINR View: RBI’S intervention keeps Rupee away from significant decline. On the downside, USDINR may have strong support at 83/82.80. Rupee’s Monthly range (hi/lo) is the lowest in last 15 months. It shows how volatility is being controlled by RBI. Implied volatility is below 3% p.a. now. It used to average 5% and spike to 8% during Rupee weakness. Expect 83-83.70 range for USDINR in Oct.
RBI rates
| Trade Date | 1 USD | 1 GBP | 1 EUR | 100 YEN |
| 13-Oct-23 | 83.25 | 101.52 | 87.76 | 55.6 |
-USDINR is at 83.25.Prior day’s close was 83.28.
-Indian Equity indices trade flat..
-Indian 10 year G-SEC yield is at 7.32%.
-USDINR 1 yr fwd premia is at 1.72%.
USDINR @ 83.25, EUR/USD@ 1.0526, GBP/USD @ 1.2161, USD/JPY @ 149.44, EUR/INR @ 87.56, GBP/INR @ 101.23, JPY/INR @ 55.72. Gold@1920, Brent Crude @ 91, Nifty @ 19754(+4), 10 Year G-SEC @ 7.34%.
Hedging:
USDINR payables can be hedged at 83.10. Eur receivables can be hedged now and on rally 88.70.
GBPINR receivables can be hedged closer to 103.75.
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