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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • November 3, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR November 03, 2023

USDINR opened at 83.22 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.18-83.33 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.26, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.31.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.26 on 02/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.30, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.37. Nov Euro/INR closed at 88.65, GBP/INR at 101.65 and Yen/INR at 55.68. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.65% p.a.  FX reserves declined by USD 2.36 bn and stood at USD 583.50 bn as on Oct 20 th.  Foreign Currency assets decreased by USD 4.15 bn last week, due to USD rally.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (02/11)

USDINR

83.26

EURINR

88.24

GBPINR

101.40

JPYINR

55.36

In Oct, FPI’S have sold Rs 17488 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5221 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 144 points (0.76%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 80 points (1.89%) . Nikkei climbed 1.2% and Hang Seng climbed 0.91%.

Euro is now at 1.0566, Pound at 1.2123, Yen at 149.65.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1984 and WT1Crude at USD 82.50/Brent at USD 86.80.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.67% and 3 m libor closed at 5.67%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.32%.

Economic news: BOE left rates unchanged at 5.25%.  BoE ,like many of its peers, seems to be done with the tightening cycle and it’s now a case of how long it remains at the peak.

Focus is now on US employment data.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 217k and factory orders climbed 2.8% m/m.

-EU PMI(mfrg-final) was reported at 43.1.

Friday’s calendar : – US NFP, ISM(services)

-EU unemployment rate

-UK PMI(services-final)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.33

83.18

EUR/USD

1.0617

  

1.0668

1.0583

GBP/USD

1.2189

  

1.2226

1.2155

USD/JPY

150.43

  

150.60

149.84

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0622

1.0661

1.0707

1.0746

1.0576

1.0537

1.0491

GBP/USD

1.2190

1.2225

1.2261

1.2296

1.2154

1.2119

1.2083

USD/JPY

150.31

150.78

151.07

151.55

140.02

149.55

149.25

USD/INR

83.25

83.33

83.40

 

83.17

83.10

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0450

1.0695/1.0815

DN

SIDE>1.07

GBP/USD

1.2090/1.2035

1.2330/1.2440/1.2550

DN

SIDE>1.2330

USD/JPY

147.50/146.50

150.80

UP

SIDE<147.50

USD/INR

83.03/82.80

83.35/83.47

UP

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.89

0.9050

UP

DN<0.89

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.23. 50 day moving average is at 83.09.200 day moving average is at 82.45. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 83.29, S1:83.24, S2:83.19, R1:83.35, R2:83.39.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.10 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below 100/200 day moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0695/1.0815. Next major support is at 1.0450. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 50 and 200 day averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2035/1.18. Important resistance is at 1.2330/1.2440.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.80. Important resistance is at 150.80 and support is at 147.50/146.50.

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