FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR November 08, 2023
USDINR opened at 83.22 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.22-83.28 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.26, gain of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.20.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.26 on 07/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.29, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.23. Nov Euro/INR closed at 89.01, GBP/INR at 102.34 and Yen/INR at 55.63. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX reserves climbed by USD 2.5 bn and stood at USD 586 bn as on Oct 27 th.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (07/11) |
|
USDINR |
83.26 |
|
EURINR |
89.14 |
|
GBPINR |
102.64 |
|
JPYINR |
55.37 |
In Nov, FPI’S have sold Rs 2979 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 1185 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 47 points (0.25%) y’day. US S&P climbed 12 points (0.28%) . Nikkei declined 1.37% and Hang Seng declined 1.70%.
Euro is now at 1.0711, Pound at 1.2338, Yen at 150.09.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1967 and WT1Crude at USD 77/Brent at USD 81.75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.58% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.28%.
Economic news: China’s export figures have taken a sharper downturn than anticipated in October, contracting by -6.4% yoy to USD 274.8B, exceeding market predictions of -3.1% yoy.
Germany’s industrial production has taken a sharper downturn than predicted, shrinking by -1.4% mom.
Oil prices declined steeply on soft Global economic data.
Data highlights: – EU PPI climbed 0.5% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar : – EU retail sales
|
USD/INR |
|
83.28 |
83.22 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0691 |
1.0720 |
1.0664 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2286 |
1.2348 |
1.2262 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
150.49 |
150.70 |
149.96 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0693 |
1.0722 |
1.0749 |
1.0778 |
1.0666 |
1.0637 |
1.0610 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2301 |
1.2340 |
1.2387 |
1.2426 |
1.2254 |
1.2215 |
1.2168 |
|
USD/JPY |
150.35 |
150.74 |
151.08 |
151.47 |
150 |
149.62 |
149.27 |
|
USD/INR |
83.25 |
83.28 |
83.31 |
|
83.22 |
83.19 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0510/1.0450 |
1.08 |
SIDE |
DN<1.0510 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2070/1.2035 |
1.2440/1.2550 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2070 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.50/146 |
151.75 |
UP |
SIDE<148.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.35/83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<83.02 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.89 |
0.9050 |
UP |
DN<0.89 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.23. 50 day moving average is at 83.12.200 day moving average is at 82.47. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:
PP: 83.275, S1:83.25, S2:83.22, R1:83.31, R2:83.33.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.10 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below 100/200 day moving averages, but above 50 day average. Major resistance is at 1.08. Next major support is at 1.0510. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.
GBP/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day averages, but above 50 day average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2070/1.2035. Important resistance is at 1.2440/1.2535.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 151.75 and support is at 148.60/146.