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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • November 17, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

 

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USDINR opened at 83.20 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.18-83.25 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.22, gain of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.10.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.24 on 16/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.22, gain of 11 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.11. Nov Euro/INR closed at 90.36, GBP/INR at 103.27 and Yen/INR at 55.20. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.56% p.a.  FX reserves climbed by USD 4 bn and stood at USD 590.78 bn as on Nov 3 rd.  

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (16/11)

USDINR

83.24

EURINR

90.22

GBPINR

103.18

JPYINR

55

In Nov, FPI’S have sold Rs 5372 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5254 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 168 points (0.86%) y’day. US S&P climbed 5 points (0.12%) . Nikkei declined 0.35% and Hang Seng declined 1.41%.

Euro is now at 1.0854, Pound at 1.2417, Yen at 150.62.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 1984 and WT1Crude at USD 73/Brent at USD 77.

 

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.44% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.23%.

Economic news: India’s trade deficit hit a record monthly high of $31.46 billion in October, owing to a surge in imports like gold during the festive season. Indian imports in October stood at $65.03 billion while exports were $33.57 billion. In OCT, Imports was USD 57.91 bn and exports was USD 31.6 bn. Combined Services and trade exports increased to USD 62.3 bn in Oct vis a vis USD 56.9 bn in Oct 2022.

US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 2 year high. Weak economic data is signaling that Fed has come to the end of rate tightening cycle.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 231k and industrial production declined -0.6% m/m.

Friday’s calendar : -US building permits and housing starts

-EU CPI

-UK retail sales

USD/INR

 

  

 83.25

83.18

EUR/USD

1.0854

  

1.0896

1.0830

GBP/USD

1.2417

  

1.2456

1.2376

USD/JPY

150.62

  

151.48

150.28

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0860

1.0890

1.0926

1.0956

1.0824

1.0794

1.0758

GBP/USD

1.2415

1.2454

1.2495

1.2534

1.2374

1.2334

1.2294

USD/JPY

150.82

151.36

152.02

152.56

150.16

149.62

148.96

USD/INR

83.21

83.25

83.29

 

83.17

83.13

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0675

1.0940

SIDE

DN<1.0675

GBP/USD

1.2185

1.2550

SIDE

DN<1.2185

USD/JPY

148.50/146

151.75

UP

SIDE<148.50

USD/INR

83.03/82.80

83.35/83.47

UP

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.89

0.9110

UP

DN<0.89

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.25. 50 day moving average is at 83.18.200 day moving average is at 82.52. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.35. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 83.21, S1:83.17, S2:83.13, R1:83.25, R2:83.29.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.30/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0940. Next major support is at 1.0675. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1275.

GBP/USD: The pair is below 100 and 200 day averages, but above 50 day average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3145. Important support is at 1.2185. Important resistance is at 1.2535.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 152. Important resistance is at 152 and support is at 148.60/146.

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