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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • November 29, 2023

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR November 29, 2023

USDINR opened at 83.35 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.31-83.395 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.33, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.38.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.39 on 28/11. Nov USD/INR closed at 83.37 y’day, loss of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.42. Nov Euro/INR closed at 91.38, GBP/INR at 105.25 and Yen/INR at 56.40. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.58% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 595 bn as on Nov 17 th.  FX reserves climbed USD 5 bn.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (28/11)

USDINR

83.39

EURINR

91.31

GBPINR

105.30

JPYINR

56.24

In Nov, FPI’S have bought Rs 811 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11599 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 95 points (0.48%) y’day. US S&P climbed 4 points (0.10%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.11% and Hang Seng declined 0.83% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1003, Pound at 1.2713, Yen at 147.12.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2046 and WT1Crude at USD 76/Brent at USD 81.

 

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.40% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.27%.

Economic news: Indian Q2 GDP is to be released on Nov 30 th. S&P raised Indian GDP forecast to 6.4% for FY 24. Equities rallied on positive news.

US Core PCE, Spending and ISM(mfrg) data are key focus events for the coming week. These datasets are expected to play a significant role in shaping the current narrative of falling inflation and a stabilizing economy, which is expected to lead to soft landing.

ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President, described the inflation outlook as “encouraging”. But he was quick to caution that this “that does not necessarily mean that the current hike cycle is now over.”

USD continues to show weakness.

Data highlights: – US House price index climbed 3.9% y/y and consumer confidence rose to 102.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US GDP (preliminary)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.395

83.31

EUR/USD

1.1003

  

1.1010

1.0934

GBP/USD

1.2713

  

1.2716

1.2606

USD/JPY

147.12

  

148.85

147.32

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0978

1.1022

1.1054

1.1097

1.0946

1.0902

1.0871

GBP/USD

1.2672

1.2738

1.2782

1.2848

1.2628

1.2562

1.2518

USD/JPY

147.88

148.44

149.41

149.97

146.91

146.35

145.38

USD/INR

83.345

83.38

83.43

 

83.295

83.26

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0850/1.0760

1.0960

UP

SIDE<1.0850

GBP/USD

1.2440/1.2375

1.2745

UP

SIDE<1.2440

USD/JPY

147

151.75

UP

SIDE<147

USD/INR

83.03/82.80

83.47

UP

SIDE<83.02

USD/CHF

0.8745

0.8950/0.9115

DN

UP>0.8950

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.28. 50 day moving average is at 83.22.200 day moving average is at 82.55. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Nov contract are:

PP: 83.39, S1:83.335, S2:83.305, R1:83.42, R2:83.475.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.45/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0960. Next major support is at 1.0850/1.0760. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0450. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2440/1.2375. Important resistance is at 1.2745.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 50 and 200 day major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 151.75 and support is at 147.

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