FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR December 6, 2023
USDINR opened at 83.38 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.36-83.40 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.36, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.37.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.39 on 05/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 83.39 y’day, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.40. Dec Euro/INR closed at 90.38, GBP/INR at 105.33 and Yen/INR at 56.91. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.55% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 598 bn as on Nov 24 th. FX reserves climbed USD 3 bn.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (05/12) |
|
USDINR |
83.39 |
|
EURINR |
90.38 |
|
GBPINR |
105.36 |
|
JPYINR |
56.78 |
In Nov, FPI’S have bought Rs 16651 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 14106 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 168 points (0.81%) y’day. US S&P declined 2 points (0.06% y’day. Nikkei declined 1.33% and Hang Seng declined 2.07% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0793, Pound at 1.2602, Yen at 147.37.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2038 and WT1Crude at USD 72/Brent at USD 77.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.195% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.27%.
Economic news: RBI’s bi-monthly monetary policy decision will be known on Dec 8 th.
US ISM Services PMI rose from 51.8 to 52.7 in November. ISM said: “The past relationship between the Services PMI and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI for November (52.7 percent) corresponds to a 1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”
Rating agency downgraded China’s Credit ratings from stable to negative. This adjustment reflects increasing expectations that the Chinese government will be compelled to provide additional financial support to heavily indebted local governments and state-owned enterprises. According to Moody’s, this necessity poses significant risks to China’s overall fiscal, economic, and institutional integrity. The statement from Moody’s emphasizes concerns about “structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth” and challenges within China’s property sector, indicating broader economic issues that could impact global markets.
UK’s PMI Services for November improved to 50.9 from October’s 49.5, indicating expansion for the first time in four months.
Crude Oil continued to remain near its recent lows as caution by rating agency on Chinese economy and underwhelming supply cuts by OPEC weighed on prices.
Data highlights: – US ISM(services) climbed marginally to 52.7.
-EU PMI(services) was finalized at 48.2 and PPI climbed 0.2% m/m.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US ADP employment report
-EU retail sales
|
USD/INR |
|
83.40 |
83.36 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0793 |
1.0848 |
1.0777 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2602 |
1.2653 |
1.2576 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
147.37 |
147.40 |
146.55 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0807 |
1.0837 |
1.0878 |
1.0907 |
1.0766 |
1.0736 |
1.0695 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2607 |
1.2638 |
1.2684 |
1.2715 |
1.2561 |
1.2530 |
1.2484 |
|
USD/JPY |
147.04 |
147.53 |
147.89 |
148.38 |
146.68 |
146.19 |
145.82 |
|
USD/INR |
83.37 |
83.38 |
83.41 |
|
83.34 |
83.33 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0735/1.0665 |
1.0960/1.1018 |
SIDE |
UP>1.1018 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2560/1.2448 |
1.2745 |
UP |
SIDE<1.2440 |
|
USD/JPY |
147/144.50/142.65 |
149.70/151.75 |
DN |
UP>149.70 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<83.02 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8745 |
0.8950 |
DN |
UP>0.8950 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.30. 50 day moving average is at 83.24.200 day moving average is at 82.62. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 83.40, S1:83.36, S2:83.34, R1:83.42, R2:83.46.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.45/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0960/1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0820/1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1018. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2528/1.2440/1.2375. Important resistance is at 1.2745.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 50 and 100 day averages but still above 200 day major average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 149.70/151.75 and support is at 147/144.50.