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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • January 16, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR January 16, 2024

USDINR opened at 82.89 Y’day and the pair traded in the 82.81-82.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.92, decline of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.93.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.85 on 15/01. Jan USD/INR closed at 82.91 y’day, loss of 8 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.99. Jan Euro/INR closed at 90.84, GBP/INR at 105.66 and Yen/INR at 57.03. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.84% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 617 bn, as on Jan 5 th. Reserves declined by USD 5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (15/01)

USDINR

82.85

EURINR

90.84

GBPINR

105.66

JPYINR

57.03

In Jan, FPI’S have bought Rs 1765 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 6546 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 202 points (0.93%) Y’day. US market was close y’day (0.00%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.98% and Hang Seng climbed 0.04% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0918, Pound at 1.2681, Yen at 146.12.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2049 and WT1Crude at USD 72.60/Brent at USD 78.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.15%.

Economic news: ECB Governing council members remained mildly hawkish stating that rate cuts can wait. Focus is on US retail slaes.

Data highlights: – EU industrial production declined -0.3% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar : – German and EU Zew surveys

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change

USD/INR

 

  

 82.94

82.81

EUR/USD

1.0918

  

1.0947

1.0915

GBP/USD

1.2681

  

1.2717

1.2679

USD/JPY

146.12

  

145.96

144.87

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0950

1.0967

1.0986

1.1003

1.0931

1.0914

1.0896

GBP/USD

1.2735

1.2758

1.2790

1.2813

1.2703

1.2680

1.2648

USD/JPY

145.52

146.17

146.62

147.27

145.08

144.42

143.98

USD/INR

82.89

82.97

83.02

 

82.84

82.76

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0875/1.0760

1.1010/1.1275

SIDE

UP>1.1010

GBP/USD

1.2610

1.2810/1.30

SIDE

DN<1.2610

USD/JPY

142.85/141.70

146.50/147.50

UP

DN<141

USD/INR

82.80

83.15/83.24

SIDE

UP>83.35

USD/CHF

0.8330

0.8650

DN

UP>0.8650

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.15. 50 day moving average is at 83.24.200 day moving average is at 82.71. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.15/83.24. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Jan contract are:

PP: 83.06, S1:82.99, S2:82.91, R1:83.14, R2:83.21.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1275. Next major support is at 1.0875/1.0740. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2810/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is below 200 day moving average. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 140. Important resistance is at 146.50/147.50 and support is at 140.

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