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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • February 1, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR February 1, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.12 y’day and the pair traded in the 83-83.12 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.05, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.11.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.08 on 31/01. Feb USD/INR closed at 83.13 y’day, loss of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.20. Feb Euro/INR closed at 90.19, GBP/INR at 105.42 and Yen/INR at 56.58. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.87% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 616 bn, as on Jan 19 th. Reserves declined by USD 2.93 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (31/01)

USDINR

83.08

EURINR

89.88

GBPINR

105.31

JPYINR

56.20

In Jan, FPI’S have sold Rs 36036 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 16951 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 203 points (0.95%) y’day. US S&P climbed 14 points (0.29%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.57% and Hang Seng declined 1.39% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0818, Pound at 1.2696, Yen at 146.62.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2036 and WT1Crude at USD 76/Brent at USD 81.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.95% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.15%.

Economic news: Indian Budget is the focus event for the day. Core sector grew at the slowest pace in 14 months at 3.8%. Coal sector grew at 10.6 per cent while natural gas rose 6.6 per cent in December. Refinery products saw an increase of 2.6 per cent in December, down from 12.4 per cent growth witnessed in November. Fertiliser sector grew 5.8 per cent year-on-year in December. Cement and electricity sectors each grew 1.3 per cent and 0.6 per cent in December.In November last year, core sector growth was 7.8 percent.

BOE rate meeting and US employment data along with ISM (mfrg) will be the focus events for the week.

Data highlights: – US ADP employment report showed that private sector job additions was only at 107k.

-German retail sales declined -1.6% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar : –  US Weekly jobless claims, ISM(mfrg)

-US Construction spending

-EU CPI, PMI(mfrg) and unemployment rate

-UK MPC meeting.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.12

83

EUR/USD

1.0818

  

1.0889

1.0795

GBP/USD

1.2696

  

1.2752

1.2657

USD/JPY

146.62

  

147.91

146.01

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0833

1.0871

1.0927

1.0965

1.0777

1.0739

1.0683

GBP/USD

1.2698

1.2739

1.2793

1.2834

1.2644

1.2603

1.2549

USD/JPY

146.93

147.85

148.83

149.75

145.95

145.03

144.05

USD/INR

83.05

83.11

83.17

 

82.98

82.93

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0770

1.0935/1.10

SIDE

UP>1.0935

GBP/USD

1.2590

1.28

SIDE

UP>1.28

USD/JPY

146/144.35

148.90/150

UP

SIDE<144.35

USD/INR

82.80

83.15/83.24

SIDE

UP>83.35

USD/CHF

0.8330

0.8650

DN

UP>0.8650

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and  50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.12. 50 day moving average is at 83.22.200 day moving average is at 82.75. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.17/83.24. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 83.15, S1:83.08, S2:83.03, R1:83.20, R2:83.27.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0935/1.10. Next major support is at 1.0770. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2610/1.25. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.30.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 140. Important resistance is at 148.90/150 and support is at 146/144.35.

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