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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • February 13, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR February 13, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.02 on Friday and the pair traded in the 82.99-83.03 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.01.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.99 on 12/02. Feb USD/INR closed at 83.05, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.07. Feb Euro/INR closed at 89.52, GBP/INR at 104.76 and Yen/INR at 55.89. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.81% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 622 bn, as on Feb 2 nd.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (12/02)

USDINR

82.99

EURINR

89.57

GBPINR

104.83

JPYINR

55.63

In Feb, FPI’S have sold Rs 4814 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 12501 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 166 points (0.76%) y’day. US S&P declined 7 points (0.14%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.09% y’day and Hang Seng declined 0.83% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0770, Pound at 1.2626, Yen at 149.37.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2020 and WT1Crude at USD 77/Brent at USD 82.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.17% and 3 m libor closed at 5.52%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.

Economic news: Jan CPI eased to 5.1% from Dec reading of 5.7%. Core inflation declined to 3.6%. Food inflation declined marginally to 8.3%.Dec IIP climbed 3.8%, up from Nov data of 2.4%.IIP grew 6.1% in Apr-Dec period. Mfrg grew by 3.9% in Dec. Mining and power sector growth cooled to 5.1% and 1.2% respectively.

US CPI and retail sales are in focus this week.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Monday’s calendar : –  US CPI

-EU and German Zew surveys

-UK claimant count change and unemployment rate

USD/INR

 

  

 83.03

82.99

EUR/USD

1.0770

  

1.0806

1.0755

GBP/USD

1.2626

  

1.2655

1.2606

USD/JPY

149.37

  

149.49

148.93

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0778

1.0801

1.0829

1.0852

1.0750

1.0727

1.0699

GBP/USD

1.2629

1.2652

1.2678

1.2701

1.2603

1.2580

1.2554

USD/JPY

149.28

149.63

149.84

150.19

149.07

148.72

148.52

USD/INR

83

83.02

83.04

 

82.97

82.96

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0725

1.0830/1.0890

SIDE

UP>1.0890

GBP/USD

1.2480

1.2695/1.2775

SIDE

UP>1.2775

USD/JPY

146/144.35

150

UP

DN<144.35

USD/INR

82.80

83.18/83.24

SIDE

UP>83.35

USD/CHF

0.8330

0.8850

DN

SIDE>0.8550

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.05. 50 day moving average is at 83.16.200 day moving average is at 82.80. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 83.08/83.18. Spot closed  at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Feb contract are:

PP: 83.05, S1:83.02, S2:82.995, R1:83.075, R2:83.105.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.35/83.40. Imports be hedged at 82.92/82.80 for 3 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0830/1.0890. Next major support is at 1.0725. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1275. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2810 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25. Important support is at 1.2480. Important resistance is at 1.2695/1.2775.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 145.90. Important resistance is at 150 and support is at 146/144.35.

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