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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • March 5, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR March 5, 2024

USDINR opened at 82.86 y’day and the pair traded in the 82.86-82.90 range. Spot USDINR closed at 82.89, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 82.85.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 82.89 on 04/03. Mar USD/INR closed at 82.93, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 82.94. Mar Euro/INR closed at 90.07, GBP/INR at 105.13 and Yen/INR at 55.42. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.65% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 619 bn, as on Feb 23 rd.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (04/03)

USDINR

82.89

EURINR

89.90

GBPINR

104.98

JPYINR

55.13

In Feb, FPI’S bought Rs 4000 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 19693 Cr of debt . In last calendar year, FII’S have net bought Rs 172853 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 70489 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 27 points (0.12%) y’day. US S&P declined 6 points (0.12%) y’day. Nikkei was up 0.45% and Hang Seng climbed 0.04% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0854, Pound at 1.2691, Yen at 150.43.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2114 and WT1Crude at USD 78.60/Brent at USD 82.75.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.21% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.06%.

Economic news: Atlanta Fed President emphasized the necessity of seeing “more progress” on inflation reduction before considering any rate cuts. He said overnight that the prosperity in the labor market and the economy, granting the FOMC the “luxury of making policy without the pressure of urgency.”

Highlighting ongoing inflation concerns, he pointed out the continued price increases in a significant portion of goods and services at rates exceeding 5% annually.

US ISM(services), ECB rate decision and US employment data are important events for the week.

Data highlights: – EU Sentix investor confidence was reported at -10.5.

Monday’s calendar : -US ISM(services) and factory orders

-EU PMI(services-final) and PPI

-UK PMI(services)

USD/INR

 

  

 82.905

82.86

EUR/USD

1.0854

  

1.0867

1.0838

GBP/USD

1.2691

  

1.2707

1.2656

USD/JPY

150.43

  

150.65

149.84

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0853

1.0868

1.0882

1.0897

1.0839

1.0824

1.0810

GBP/USD

1.2684

1.2712

1.2735

1.2763

1.2661

1.2633

1.2611

USD/JPY

150.31

150.78

151.12

151.59

149.97

149.50

149.17

USD/INR

82.89

82.91

82.93

 

82.875

82.85

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.07

1.0890

SIDE

UP>1.0890

GBP/USD

1.2515

1.2710/1.2830

SIDE

UP>1.2710

USD/JPY

148.80/146.85

151/152

UP

SIDE<146.85

USD/INR

82.80

82.96/83.12

SIDE

UP>83.12

USD/CHF

0.8730/0.8620

0.8850

UP

DN<0.8620

Technicals: Spot closed below 20 and 50 day average but above 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 82.95. 50 day moving average is at 83.07.200 day moving average is at 82.82. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 82.80 and important resistance is at 82.96/83.12. Spot closed  at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for March contract are:

PP: 82.925, S1:82.90, S2:82.87, R1:82.955, R2:82.98.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83/83.05. Imports be hedged at 82.80 for 2 months.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0890. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.25 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2829. Important support is at 1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2710/1.2830.

USD/YEN: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 150.90. Important resistance is at 150.90/152 and support is at 148.80/146.85.

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