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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • April 5, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR April 5, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.42 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.39-83.46 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.40, loss of 7  ps for USD as against prior close of 83.47.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.45 on 04/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.51, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.53. Euro/INR closed at 90.55, GBP/INR at 105.55 and Yen/INR at 54.95. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 642.36 bn, as on March 22 nd.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (04/04)

USDINR

83.45

EURINR

90.49

GBPINR

105.60

JPYINR

55.02

In March, FPI’S bought Rs 32927 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13818 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 80 points (0.36%) y’day. US S&P climbed 5 points (0.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.86% and Hang Seng declined 1.22% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0842, Pound at 1.2645, Yen at 150.93.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2279 and WT1Crude at USD 87/Brent at USD 91.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.31% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.

Economic news: RBI’S MPC meeting is underway and policy decision is expected today.

ECB’s March meeting accounts unveiled a unified stance among Governing Council members against discussing rate cuts at that time, citing it as “premature.” However, the narrative within the ECB is evolving, with increasing acknowledgment that “the case for considering rate cuts was strengthening,” pointing towards a strategic shift contingent on forthcoming economic data.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 221k.

-EU PPI and PMI(services) climbed to 51.5.

-UK PMI(services) declined mildly to 53,1,

Friday’s calendar : – US nonfarm payrolls

-German factory orders

-UK PMI(construction)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.46

83.39

EUR/USD

1.0842

  

1.0877

1.0831

GBP/USD

1.2645

  

1.2684

1.2634

USD/JPY

150.93

  

151.35

150.81

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0812

1.0861

1.0886

1.0935

1.0786

1.0738

1.0712

GBP/USD

1.2623

1.2685

1.2719

1.2781

1.2589

1.2527

1.2493

USD/JPY

151.69

151.94

152.21

152.46

151.42

151.17

150.89

USD/INR

83.41

83.44

83.48

 

83.36

83.34

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.07

1.0875

DN

UP>1.0875

GBP/USD

1.2575

1.2670/1.28

DN

SIDE>1.2670

USD/JPY

149/146.50/144.35

152.50

UP

SIDE<149

USD/INR

83.27/83.20

83.47/83.70/84.10

UP

SIDE<83.

USD/CHF

0.8890/0.8725

0.91

UP

DN<0.8725

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.08. 50 day moving average is at 83.04. 200 day moving average is at 82.91. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.27/83.20 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 83.51, S1:83.42, S2:83.32, R1:83.62, R2:83.70.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.29 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2575. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.29.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 146.50. Important resistance is at 152.50 and support is at 149/146.50.

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