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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • April 15, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR April 15, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.36 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.36-83.49 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.47, gain of 26  ps for USD as against prior close of 83.21.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.39 on 12/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.49, gain of 27 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.22. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.09, GBP/INR at 104.22 and Yen/INR at 54.55. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 648 bn, as on April 5 th. Reserves increased by USD 2.5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (12/04)

USDINR

83.39

EURINR

89.12

GBPINR

104.42

JPYINR

54.42

In April, FPI’S have bought Rs 10992 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 3201 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 234 points (1.03%) on Friday. US S&P declined 75 points (1.56%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 0.30% and Hang Seng declined 0.26% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0640, Pound at 1.2450, Yen at 153.29.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2344 and WT1Crude at USD 85.45/Brent at USD 90.15.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.52% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.18%.

Economic news: March CPI eased to 4.85% as against 5.09% in Feb. Food inflation eased marginally to 8.52% from 8.66% in Feb. Core CPI declined to 3.4% in Feb. IIP surged to 4 month high of 5.7% as against 4.2% in Jan.

US markets and Global markets are jolted by fading expectations of June rate cut. USD climbed on risk aversion as geo political tensions are high due to expected Iran-Israel conflict. Rising energy prices as a consequence of Gulf tensions could make disinflationary progress even harder. US 10-year yield surged sharply too to close at 4.499 after reaching as high as 4.591.

US retail sales data is the important data event for the day.

Data highlights: — UK industrial and manufacturing production climbed 1.1% and 1.2% respectively.

-UK GDP climbed 0.1% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : US retail sales

-EU industrial production.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.49

83.36

EUR/USD

1.0640

  

1.0731

1.0622

GBP/USD

1.2450

  

1.2560

1.2425

USD/JPY

153.29

  

153.40

152.59

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0664

1.0706

1.0783

 

1.0597

1.0545

 

GBP/USD

1.2478

1.2531

1.2613

 

1.2396

1.2343

 

USD/JPY

153.10

153.59

153.91

 

152.80

152.29

 

USD/INR

83.44

83.52

83.57

 

83.39

83.31

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0520/1.0450

1.0725/1.0885

DN

UP>1.0885

GBP/USD

1.2430/1.2330

1.2535/1.2720

DN

UP>1.2720

USD/JPY

152/150.80

154.50

UP

SIDE<150.80

USD/INR

83.27/83.165

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.15

USD/CHF

0.90

0.9230

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.16. 50 day moving average is at 83.06. 200 day moving average is at 82.94. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.17 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 83.23, S1:83.18, S2:83.14, R1:83.27, R2:83.32.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27/83.16.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0725/1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2710 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2430/1.2340. Important resistance is at 1.2535/1.2720.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 150.80. Important resistance is at 154.50 and support is at 152/150.80.

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