FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR April 22, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.55 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.45-83.56 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.46, loss of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.52.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.52 on 19/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.48, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.54. Apr Euro/INR closed at 88.92, GBP/INR at 103.91 and Yen/INR at 54.03. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.59% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 643 bn, as on April 12 th. Reserves decreased by USD 5 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (19/04) |
|
USDINR |
83.52 |
|
EURINR |
88.89 |
|
GBPINR |
103.79 |
|
JPYINR |
54.09 |
In April, FPI’S have sold Rs 7608 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 10896 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 151 points (0.69%) on Friday. US S&P declined 44 points (0.88%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 2.53% and Hang Seng declined 1.09% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0655, Pound at 1.2370, Yen at 154.65.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2392 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 87.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.57% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.17%.
Economic news: USD gained, stocks declined steeply as markets were on edge due to Geo political tensions and lowering of rate cuts expectations in US. Though Middle east tensions seems to be contained for the present, there is a fear of escalation. In addition, higher than expected inflation has tempered rate cut hopes. Fed members comments also confirms that there will be few rate cuts in smaller size than what was hoped earlier. Fed Chairman hinted that restrictive monetary policy may stay for a little longer than what was hinted at the beginning of this Year. Recently released retail sales data also confirms strong consumer spending and that economy is resilient to withstand higher rates.
Recent escalations between Israel and Iran had investors on edge, as they could have far-reaching impacts on global inflation and supply chain
Rupee declined to 83.56, but RBI seems to have sold USD on Friday and the pair stabilized.
US S&P 500 logged its most substantial weekly decline since March of the previous year, with a loss exceeding -3%. NASDAQ wasn’t spared either, enduring -5.5% drop, marking its steepest weekly fall since November 2022. Indian Stocks also declined, tracking negative global cues.
Pound fell steeply on Friday as BOE Dy Governor hinted at aligning monetary rate policies more closely to EU. This implies that BOE may go for rate cuts, if EU does.
Data highlights: — US weekly jobless claims dipped to 212k and existing home sales was reported at 4.19 mn.
-UK retail sales was flat m/m.
Monday’s calendar : – EU Consumer confidence.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.56 |
83.45 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0655 |
1.0678 |
1.0610 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2370 |
1.2470 |
1.2365 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
154.65 |
154.68 |
153.58 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0647 |
1.0685 |
1.0715 |
|
1.0616 |
1.0579 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2401 |
1.2437 |
1.2506 |
|
1.2333 |
1.2296 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
154.30 |
155.02 |
155.40 |
|
153.92 |
153.20 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.49 |
83.53 |
83.60 |
|
83.42 |
83.38 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.06/1.0520 |
1.0725/1.08 |
DN |
UP>1.0885 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2330/1.2220 |
1.2485/1.2540 |
DN |
UP>1.2540 |
|
USD/JPY |
152/150.80 |
154.80/156 |
UP |
SIDE<152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.32/83.17 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.17 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.89 |
0.9230 |
UP |
SIDE<0.89 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.32. 50 day moving average is at 83.08. 200 day moving average is at 82.97. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.32/83.17 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 83.49, S1:83.38, S2:83.29, R1:83.58, R2:83.69.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.32..
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0725/1.08. Next major support is at 1.06/1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2710 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2330/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2485/1.2540.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 150.80. Important resistance is at 154.80/156 and support is at 152/150.80.
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