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USDINR opened at 83.31 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.30-83.36 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.35, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.31.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.34 on 26/04. May USD/INR closed at 83.425, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.395. May Euro/INR closed at 89.44, GBP/INR at 104.39 and Yen/INR at 53.51. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 640.33 bn, as on April 12 th. Reserves decreased by USD 2.8 bn w/w.

In April, FPI’S have sold Rs 8659 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 15362 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 150 points (0.67%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 51 points (1.02%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.84% and Hang Seng climbed 2.12% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0693, Pound at 1.2493, Yen at 158.35.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2338 and WT1Crude at USD 83.65/Brent at USD 89.35.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.66% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.20%.

Economic news: US markets showed resilience despite weaker than expected GDP data and stronger inflation. High investor confidence backed by strong consumer spending lifted markets.  This consumer resilience suggests sustained demand that could keep inflation at elevated levels, keep Fed’s hands off from aggressive monetary policy easing.

The overall market dynamics argues that expectation of fewer Fed rate cut, or even no cut this year at all, is well priced in, and absorbed by investors

USD continued to remain strong despite feeble attempts of recovery by crosses. Yen declined sharply as investors felt that BOJ is not serious in intervention.

FOMC is meeting this week. US ISM and EU CPI data are important events in upcoming week.

Data highlights: – US Personal income climbed 0.5% m/m, spending climbed 0.8% m/m, Core PCE index climbed 0.3% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – No major data release.

Daily Support/Resistance table

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.40. 50 day moving average is at 83.12. 200 day moving average is at 82.97. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.27/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.47/83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 83.42, S1:83.39, S2:83.35, R1:83.46, R2:83.49.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27/83.17/83.10.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08/1.0845. Next major support is at 1.06/1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.23/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2540/1.2620.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 150.80. Important resistance is at 159 and support is at 154.80/152.

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