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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • May 14, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR May 14, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.50 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.50-83.54 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.51, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.52.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.52 on 13/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.56, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.54. May Euro/INR closed at 90.07, GBP/INR at 104.55 and Yen/INR at 53.60. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 641.50 bn, as on May 3 rd. Reserves increased by USD 3.6 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (13/05)

USDINR

83.52

EURINR

89.98

GBPINR

104.64

JPYINR

53.60

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 18933 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 1333 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 48 points (0.22%) y’day. US S&P closed flat (0%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.24%  and Hang Seng climbed 0.80% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0785, Pound at 1.2555, Yen at 156.47.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2340 and WT1Crude at USD 79/Brent at USD 83.35.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.48% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.12%.

Economic news: Indian March IIP declined marginally to 4.9% vis a vis 5.6% in Feb. For FY 24, IIP climbed 5.8%. Manufacturing climbed 5.2% vs 4.9% in Feb. For FY24, mfrg climbed 5.5%. Capital goods sector climbed 6.1% in March. Consumer durables climbed 9.5% and non durables grew by 4.9%.

CPI eased to 4.83% in April. Food inflation remained high at 8.7%. Core inflation declined to 3.2%.

US PPI and CPI are important data events for the week.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : US PPI

-EU and German Zew surveys

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change

USD/INR

 

  

 83.54

83.50

EUR/USD

1.0772

  

1.0807

1.0766

GBP/USD

1.2525

  

1.2570

1.2516

USD/JPY

155.78

  

156.29

155.52+

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0788

1.0810

1.0829

1.0851

1.0769

1.0747

1.0728

GBP/USD

1.2548

1.2580

1.2602

1.2634

1.2526

1.2494

1.2472

USD/JPY

156.02

156.52

156.79

157.29

155.75

155.25

154.97

USD/INR

83.52

83.53

83.55

 

83.50

83.49

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.07/1.06

1.08/1.0840

DN

UP>1.0845

GBP/USD

1.23/1.2220

1.2570/1.2640

DN

UP>1.2640

USD/JPY

152

160

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

83.35/83.17/83.10

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.35

USD/CHF

0.90/0.8885

0.9230

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.45. 50 day moving average is at 83.21. 200 day moving average is at 83.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.35/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 83.56, S1:83.55, S2:83.54, R1:83.57, R2:83.58.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.17/83.10.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.08/1.0845. Next major support is at 1.07/1.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.23/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2630.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 151.85/149.

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