• BUSINESS ENQUIRY :
  • +91 80122 78000
  • BUSINESS ENQUIRY :
  • 044 4032 9999 / 044 4020 5050

Business Enquiry :

+91 80122 78000

Business Enquiry :

044 4032 9999 / 044 4020 5050

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • No Comments
  • May 16, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR May 16, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.49 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.46-83.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.51, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.51.

Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.51 on 15/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.55, loss of 1ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.56. May Euro/INR closed at 90.34, GBP/INR at 105.19 and Yen/INR at 53.58. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 641.50 bn, as on May 3 rd. Reserves increased by USD 3.6 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (15/05)

USDINR

83.51

EURINR

90.39

GBPINR

105.16

JPYINR

53.41

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 18933 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 1333 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 17 points (0.08%) y’day. US S&P climbed 25 points (0.48%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.17%  and Hang Seng declined 0.22% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0886, Pound at 1.2691, Yen at 153.95.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2388 and WT1Crude at USD 79/Brent at USD 83.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.32% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.09%.

Economic news: US CPI rose 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. CPI core (ex food and energy) rose 0.3% mom, matched expectations. Energy index rose 1.1% mom while food index was unchanged. Over the 12-months, CPI slowed from 3.5% yoy to 3.4% yoy , matched expectations. CPI core slowed from 3.8% yoy to 3.6% yoy, matched expectations. Energy index rose 2.6% yoy while good index rose 2.2% yoy.

US retail sales was flat in April, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations.

USD declined and stocks rose on renewed optimism of Sept rate cut.

ECB Governing Council member reiterated that a June interest rate cut is on the table, depending on the progress of inflation.

US increased tariffs on some important Chinese imports. Wall street was powered high by hopes of rate cuts.

Data highlights: – US CPI climbed 0.3% m/m and 3.4% y/y. Core CPI also climbed 0.3% m/m and retail sales was flat m/m.

-EU GDP climbed 0.3% q/q and industrial production climbed 0.6% m/m.

Thursday’s calendar : -US Weekly jobless claims

-US building permits and housing starts

USD/INR

 

  

 83.51

83.46

EUR/USD

1.0886

  

1.0891

1.0813

GBP/USD

1.2691

  

1.2694

1.2584

USD/JPY

153.95

  

156.56

154.15

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0864

1.0915

1.0942

1.0993

1.0837

1.0786

1.0760

GBP/USD

1.2656

1.2728

1.2766

1.2838

1.2618

1.2546

1.2508

USD/JPY

155.01

155.87

157.41

158.27

153.46

152.61

151.06

USD/INR

83.49

83.525

83.54

 

83.47

83.44

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0735/1.06

1.0885

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.25

1.2710

UP

DN<1.25

USD/JPY

152

157/160

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

83.35/83.17/83.10

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.35

USD/CHF

0.90/0.8885

0.9230

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.46. 50 day moving average is at 83.24. 200 day moving average is at 83.06. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.35/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 83.53, S1:83.51, S2:83.48, R1:83.56, R2:83.58.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.25.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0735. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.25. Important resistance is at 1.2710.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 160 and support is at 151.85/149.

Click to open an Account : https://ekyc.gwcindia.in/client/

For all your investment needs feel free to reach us.
Give us Missed Call us on 90037 90027 . For Support : 044-40329999

Risk Disclosures
on Derivatives

  • 9 out of 10 individual traders in equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses.
  • On an average, loss makers registered net trading loss close to ₹ 50,000.
  • Over and above the net trading losses incurred, loss makers expended an additional 28% of net trading losses as transaction costs.
  • Those making net trading profits, incurred between 15% to 50% of such profits as transaction cost.
Source: SEBI study dated January 25, 2023 on “Analysis of Profit and Loss of Individual Traders dealing in equity Futures and Options (F&O) Segment”, wherein Aggregate Level findings are based on annual Profit/Loss incurred by individual traders in equity F&O during FY 2021-22.

Attention Investor

KYC is one time exercise while dealing in securities markets – once KYC is done through a SEBI registered intermediary (broker, DP, Mutual Fund etc), you need not undergo the same process again when you approach another intermediary. No need to issue cheques by investors while subscribing to IPO. Just write the bank account number and sign in the application form to authorise your bank to make payment in case of allotment. No worries for refund as the money remains in investor’s account. Prevent Unauthorized Transactions in your Demat account\Trading account: Update your Mobile Number with your Depository Participant\Exchange. Receive alerts on your Registered Mobile for all debit and other important transactions in your Demat account\Trading account directly from Depository\Exchange on the same day………issued in the interest of investors.
The Stock Exchange, Mumbai is not in any manner answerable, responsible or liable to any person or persons for any acts of omission or commission, errors, mistakes and/or violation, actual or perceived, by us or our partners, agents, associates etc., of any of the Rules, Regulations, Bye-laws of the Stock Exchange, Mumbai, SEBI Act or any other laws in force from time to time. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai is not answerable, responsible or liable for any information on this Website or for any services rendered by our employees, our servants, and us.
Please DO NOT disclose your User ID and/or Passwords to any person, even Goodwill staff never ask you to share the same. Goodwill is NEITHER liable for any loss arising from your sharing of your password with anyone, NOR from its consequent unauthorized use.

Invest In

Others

 

Important Links

Useful Links

Flow Chart

Policy

 

Investor Complaints

Important Links

Get Social

Facebook Twitter Youtube
Goodwill Wealth Management Pvt Ltd |       MCX : 11095 | SEBI Regn. No : INZ000177036
Clearing Code |       NSE : M52003 | BSE : 6648
CDSL DP |       DP ID : 12084200 | SEBI Regn. No : IN - DP - CDSL - 309 - 2017
Research Analyst |       SEBI Regn. No : INH200005179
Mutual Funds |  ARN : 182218

Proprietary Trading Disclosure:In terms of provisions of the Rules, Bye-Laws and Business Rules of the Exchange and with reference to circular MCX/T&S/147/2016 dated May 17, 2016 regarding Disclosure of Proprietary Account Trading by broker to client.,Pursuant to SEBI Circular Number SEBI/MRD/SEC/Cir-42/2003 dated November 19, 2003 & SEBI/HO/CDMRD/DMP/CIR/P/2016/49 dated April 25, 2016 GOODWILL WEALTH MANAGEMENT PVT LTD. Discloses to its clients about its policies on proprietary trades.