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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • May 22, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR May 22, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.31 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.25-83.37 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.32, loss of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.37.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.36 on 21/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.34, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.38. May Euro/INR closed at 90.39, GBP/INR at 105.80 and Yen/INR at 53.62. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.69% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 644.15 bn, as on May 10 th. Reserves increased by USD 2.56 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (21/05)

USDINR

83.36

EURINR

90.55

GBPINR

106

JPYINR

53.35

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 30092 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 446 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 13 points y’day (0.25%). US S&P climbed 6 points (0.12%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.35%  and Hang Seng declined 2.12% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0857, Pound at 1.2732, Yen at 156.30.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2414 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 82.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.42% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.08%.

Economic news: Rupee gained to 83.25 on strong inter bank sales in mid session. Fed member said that “several more months” of favorable inflation data are necessary before he would consider supporting interest rate cuts.While the latest CPI data was a “reassuring signal” indicating that inflation is not accelerating, He noted that the progress shown was “small.”

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US existing home sales and FOMC minutes

-UK CPI, RPI and PPI(output)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.37

83.25

EUR/USD

1.0857

  

1.0875

1.0842

GBP/USD

1.2732

  

1.2727

1.2687

USD/JPY

156.30

  

156.55

155.84

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0857

1.0872

1.0890

1.0905

1.0839

1.0824

1.0806

GBP/USD

1.2708

1.2729

1.2748

1.2769

1.2689

1.2668

1.2649

USD/JPY

156.22

156.60

156.93

157.31

155.89

155.51

155.18

USD/INR

83.31

83.375

83.43

 

83.25

83.19

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0810/1.0735

1.0885

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.2635/1.2535

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2535

USD/JPY

152

157/160

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

83.25/83.17/83.10

83.70

SIDE

UP>83.55

USD/CHF

0.90/0.8885

0.9230

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.43. 50 day moving average is at 83.25. 200 day moving average is at 83.10. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.25/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 83.415, S1:83.305, S2:83.235, R1:83.49, R2:83.595.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.25.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0810/1.0735. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2710/1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 160. Important resistance is at 157/ 160 and support is at 151.85/149.

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