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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • May 29, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR May 29, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.14 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.10-83.19 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.18, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.13.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.16 on 28/05. May USD/INR closed at 83.19, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.14. May Euro/INR closed at 90.50, GBP/INR at 106.12 and Yen/INR at 53.01. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.67% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 648.7 bn, as on May 17 th. Reserves increased by USD 4.55 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (28/05)

USDINR

83.16

EURINR

90.45

GBPINR

106.22

JPYINR

53.02

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 23897 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2277 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 44 points (0.19%) Y’DAY. US market was closed y’day. Nikkei declined 1.27%  and Hang Seng declined 1.38% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0873, Pound at 1.2780, Yen at 156.74.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2353 and WT1Crude at USD 79/Brent at USD 83.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.47% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.99%.

Economic news: Fed member emphasized the need for “many more months of positive inflation data” before considering a reduction in monetary policy restrictions. Moreover, he noted that Fed might still need to hike rates if inflation does not decrease further, stating, “I don’t think we should rule anything out at this point.” Inflation jitters are keeping markets tense. However, rally in US tech stocks are aiding new highs for Nasdaq composite.

Rupee declined mildly on RBI support to USD.

Data highlights: – US house price index and consumer confidence

Wednesday’s calendar : – No major data release.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.19

83.10

EUR/USD

1.0850

  

1.0890

1.0853

GBP/USD

1.2757

  

1.2802

1.2753

USD/JPY

157.25

  

157.41

157.20

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0866

1.0879

1.0903

1.0916

1.0842

1.0829

1.0806

GBP/USD

1.2772

1.2791

1.2821

1.2840

1.2742

1.2723

1.2693

USD/JPY

156.98

157.38

157.60

158

156.75

156.35

156.13

USD/INR

83.16

83.22

83.25

 

83.125

83.07

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0775/1.0735

1.0885

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.2635/1.2575/1.2535

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2535

USD/JPY

153.75/152

157.60/160

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

82.95/82.85

83.28/83.42/83.52

SIDE

UP>83.55

USD/CHF

0.90/0.8885

0.9295

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed below 50 and 20 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.41. 50 day moving average is at 83.28. 200 day moving average is at 83.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.05/82.95 and important resistance is at 83.28/83.40. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for May contract are:

PP: 83.16, S1:83.12, S2:83.06, R1:83.22, R2:83.26.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0775/1.0735. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 152. Important resistance is at 157.60/ 160 and support is at 151.85/149.

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