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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • May 31, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR May 31, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.42 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.26-83.45 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.29, loss of 10 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.39.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.42 on 30/05. June USD/INR closed at 83.35, loss of 12 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.47. June Euro/INR closed at 90.23, GBP/INR at 105.95 and Yen/INR at 53.46. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.67% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 648.7 bn, as on May 17 th. Reserves increased by USD 4.55 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (30/05)

USDINR

83.42

EURINR

90.05

GBPINR

105.86

JPYINR

53.18

In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 23897 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2277 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 216 points (0.95%) Y’DAY. US S&P declined 31 points (0.67%). Nikkei declined 1.27%  and Hang Seng declined 1.38% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0818, Pound at 1.2721, Yen at 156.70.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2353 and WT1Crude at USD 77.50/Brent at USD 81.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.54% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.01%.

Economic news: Rupee gained to 83.26 from important technical resistance level of 83.43. US Core PCE index is awaited later tonight.

US GDP climbed 1.3% annualized in Q1 as against estimate of 1.6%, dragged by personal spending which climbed only 2% as against expectation of 2.6%.Higher rates and slower income growth are contributing to drag in personal spending.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims was reported at 219k and pending home sales declined -7.7% m/m.

-EU unemployment rate dipped to 6.4%.

Friday’s calendar : – US Personal income, spending and Core PCE index

-EU CPI

USD/INR

 

  

 83.45

83.26

EUR/USD

1.0818

  

1.0846

1.0788

GBP/USD

1.2721

  

1.2748

1.2680

USD/JPY

156.70

  

157.68

156.38

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0822

1.0856

1.0880

1.0914

1.0798

1.0764

1.0740

GBP/USD

1.2719

1.2758

1.2787

1.2826

1.2690

1.2651

1.2622

USD/JPY

156.95

157.52

158.25

158.83

156.22

155.65

154.92

USD/INR

83.34

83.42

83.53

 

83.23

83.15

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0775/1.0735

1.0885

UP

DN<1.0735

GBP/USD

1.2635/1.2575/1.2535

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2535

USD/JPY

153.75/152

157.60/160

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

82.95/82.85

83.42/83.52

SIDE

UP>83.55

USD/CHF

0.90/0.8885

0.9295

UP

SIDE<0.90

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 but below 20 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.42. 50 day moving average is at 83.28. 200 day moving average is at 83.12. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.05/82.95 and important resistance is at 83.42. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:

PP: 83.39, S1:83.27, S2:83.20, R1:83.47, R2:83.58.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.40/83.52.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0775/1.0735. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.06. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 152. Important resistance is at 157.60/ 160 and support is at 151.85/149.

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