FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR June 3, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.24 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.24-83.50 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.43, gain of 14 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.29.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.30 on 31/05. June USD/INR closed at 83.51, gain of 16 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.35. June Euro/INR closed at 90.55, GBP/INR at 106.05 and Yen/INR at 53.40. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.67% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 646.6 bn, as on May 24 th. Reserves declined by USD 3.26 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (31/05) |
|
USDINR |
83.30 |
|
EURINR |
90.12 |
|
GBPINR |
105.92 |
|
JPYINR |
53.08 |
In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 5433 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 2848 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 42 points (0.19%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 42 points (0.80%). Nikkei climbed 1.27% and Hang Seng declined 0.83% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0841, Pound at 1.2739, Yen at 157.31.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2327 and WT1Crude at USD 77.50/Brent at USD 81.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.51% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.01%.
Economic news: Indian Q4 GDP climbed 7.8% in Q4 and GDP climbed 8.2% in 2023-24. In Q3, GDP climbed 8.3%. Mfrg climbed 9.9%, Mining grew by 7.4%, construction grew by 9.9% , Agri sector climbed 1.4% Private consumption climbed 4% and Govt consumption climbed 2.5%. Gross capital fixed formation climbed 9%.
Fiscal deficit improved to 5.63% as against budget estimate of 5.8% of GDP. GST collections climbed 10% y/y to Rs 1.73 lac Cr.
US PCE price index rose 0.3% mom in April, matched expectations. Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.3% mom .Annually, PCE price index was unchanged at 2.7% yoy. Core PCE price index was unchanged at 2.8% yoy. Both matched expectations.
Personal income rose 0.3% mom or USD 65.3B, matched expectations. Personal spending rose 0.2% mom or USD 39.1B, below expectation of 0.3% mom.
Data highlights: – -EU CPI climbed from 2.4% to 2.6% y/y and Core CPI also climbed from 2.7% to 2.9% y/y, above expectations.
Monday’s calendar : – US ISM(mfrg) and construction spending
-EU PMI(mfrg)
-UK PMI(mfrg)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.50 |
83.25 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0841 |
1.0883 |
1.0811 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2739 |
1.2767 |
1.2699 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
157.31 |
157.38 |
156.56 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0845 |
1.0879 |
1.0917 |
|
1.0807 |
1.0773 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2735 |
1.2771 |
1.2803 |
|
1.2703 |
1.2667 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
157.08 |
157.60 |
157.90 |
|
156.78 |
156.26 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.39 |
83.54 |
83.65 |
|
83.28 |
83.13 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0775/1.0735 |
1.0885 |
UP |
DN<1.0735 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2635/1.2575/1.2535 |
1.2825 |
UP |
DN<1.2535 |
|
USD/JPY |
153.75/152 |
157.80/160 |
UP |
SIDE<152 |
|
USD/INR |
82.95/82.85 |
83.52 |
SIDE |
UP>83.55 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8885 |
0.9150/0.9295 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 but below 20 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.43. 50 day moving average is at 83.28. 200 day moving average is at 83.13. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.05/82.95 and important resistance is at 83.52. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 83.45, S1:83.35, S2:83.19, R1:83.61, R2:83.71.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.52.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0885. Next major support is at 1.0775/1.0735. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 152. Important resistance is at 157.80/ 160 and support is at 151.85/149.
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