FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR June 21, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.43 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.43-83.68 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.61, gain of 17 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.44.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.53 on 20/06. June USD/INR closed at 83.64, gain of 18 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.46. June Euro/INR closed at 89.63, GBP/INR at 106.07 and Yen/INR at 53.20. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.59% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 655 bn, as on June 7 th. Reserves climbed by USD 3 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (20/06) |
|
USDINR |
83.53 |
|
EURINR |
89.64 |
|
GBPINR |
106.12 |
|
JPYINR |
52.80 |
In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 5240 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 6364 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 51 points (0.22%) Y’day. US S&P declined 13 points (0.25%). Nikkei climbed 0.28% and Hang Seng declined 0.63% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0707, Pound at 1.2658, Yen at 159.03.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2360 and WT1Crude at USD 81/Brent at USD 85.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.27% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.
Economic news: Rupee declined on outflows related to Vodafone. Yuan weakness and crude Oil buying related flows also aided Rupee weakness.
BOE maintained status quo. The central bank stated that, as part of the August forecast round, the Committee will review all available information to assess whether the risks from persistent inflation are receding. Based on this assessment, the Committee will determine how long the Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level. Some members of MPC felt that services inflation is a cause for worry and some felt that this will not alter economy’s disinflationary path. Overall impression is that BOE may deliver rate cut in Aug.
Swiss national bank delivered second rate cut this year. In the accompanying statement, SNB said “underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again”. The central will continue to monitor the development of inflation closely, and will “adjust its monetary policy if necessary.
Ifo institute upgraded German GDP growth to 0.4% in 2024, up from earlier estimate of 0.2%.
Data highlights: US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 238k and building permits dipped to 1.39 mn.
-EU Consumer confidence was reported at -14.
Friday’s calendar : – US Existing home sales
-EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)
-UK retail sales
|
USD/INR |
|
83.68 |
83.43 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0707 |
1.0754 |
1.0724 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2658 |
1.2740 |
1.2700 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
159.03 |
158.11 |
157.60 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0719 |
1.0737 |
1.0767 |
1.0785 |
1.0689 |
1.0671 |
1.0641 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2678 |
1.2701 |
1.2744 |
1.2768 |
1.2635 |
1.2612 |
1.2569 |
|
USD/JPY |
158.61 |
159.27 |
159.61 |
160.27 |
158.27 |
157.61 |
157.27 |
|
USD/INR |
83.57 |
83.71 |
83.82 |
|
83.46 |
83.32 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0610 |
1.09 |
DN |
UP>1.09 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2635/1.2575/1.2510 |
1.2825 |
UP |
DN<1.2535 |
|
USD/JPY |
154.50 |
157.80/160 |
UP |
SIDE<154.50 |
|
USD/INR |
83.42/83.34 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.30 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8885 |
0.9150/0.9295 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.42. 50 day moving average is at 83.41. 200 day moving average is at 83.19. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.42/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 83.59, S1:83.50, S2:83.36, R1:83.73, R2:83.82.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.55+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0620. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 157.75. Important resistance is at 157.80/ 160 and support is at 154.50.
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