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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • July 5, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR July 5, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.53 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.47-83.56 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.52, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.51.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.50 on 04/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.57, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.58. July Euro/INR closed at 90.22, GBP/INR at 106.47 and Yen/INR at 51.96. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.65% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 653.71 bn, as on June 21 st. Reserves climbed by US D 816 mn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (04/07)

USDINR

83.50

EURINR

90.11

GBPINR

106.45

JPYINR

51.73

In June , FPI’S have bought Rs 24386 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 15616 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 15 points (0.06%) y’day. US market was closed y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.81% and Hang Seng climbed 0.32% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0816, Pound at 1.2765, Yen at 161.09.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2361 and WT1Crude at USD 84/Brent at USD 87.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.37% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7%.

Economic news: ECB’s June meeting minutes reveal that “almost all members” supported the 25bps rate cut. However, there was a significant “dissenting view”, arguing that recent data and ongoing inflationary risks “did not support the case for a rate cut”.

The dissenters pointed to “stickiness” in inflation and highlighted the risk that geopolitical factors could exacerbate inflation this “stickiness”. They also warned that diverging from US interest rate path could “risk adding to inflationary pressures via exchange rate effects”.

US markets were closed y’day. Markets are bracing for US employment data. Softer data could trigger USD weakness. Euro is in rally mode as further Euro rate cuts has faded.

Data highlights: – German factory orders declined -1.6% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) dipped to 52.2.

Friday’s calendar : – US nonfarm payrolls

USD/INR

 

  

 83.56

83.47

EUR/USD

1.0816

  

1.0814

1.0783

GBP/USD

1.2765

  

1.2768

1.2741

USD/JPY

161.09

  

161.62

160.95

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0802

1.0821

1.0833

1.0852

1.0790

1.0771

1.0759

USD/JPY

161.31

161.67

161.98

162.34

161

160.64

160.34

GBP/USD

1.2755

1.2769

1.2782

1.2796

1.2742

1.2728

1.2715

USD/INR

83.52

83.56

83.61

 

83.48

83.43

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0665

1.09

UP

DN<1.0665

GBP/USD

1.2615

1.2825

UP

DN<1.2615

USD/JPY

158.80

162

UP

SIDE<158.80

USD/INR

83.34

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.30

USD/CHF

0.8825/0.8730

0.9035

DN

UP>0.9035

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.49. 50 day moving average is at 83.44. 200 day moving average is at 83.21. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 83.57, S1:83.51, S2:83.48, R1:83.61, R2:83.66.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825. Important support is at 1.2610. Important resistance is at 1.2740/1.2825.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 154.55. Important resistance is at 162 and support is at 158.80.

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