FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR August 12, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.95 y;’day and the pair traded in the 83.89-83.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.95, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.95.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.90 on 09/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.98, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 84. Aug Euro/INR closed at 91.72, GBP/INR at 107.04 and Yen/INR at 57.33. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.02% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 674.91 bn, as on Aug 2 nd. Reserves climbed by US D 7.5 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (09/08) |
|
USDINR |
83.90 |
|
EURINR |
91.67 |
|
GBPINR |
107.12 |
|
JPYINR |
57.02 |
In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 10577 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4533 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 250 points (1.04%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 25 points (0.47%). Nikkei climbed 0.74% and Hang Seng climbed 1.17% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0917, Pound at 1.2785, Yen at 146.63.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2431 and WT1Crude at USD 77/Brent at USD 79.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.94% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7%.
Economic news: Markets have calmed as panic about US recession seems to have faded slightly and comments by Fed members have also helped in calming the market. However, there is still nervousness and it could be only allayed by a steep decline in US CPI. US CPI, PPI and retail sales are important data events for next week. While CPI is expected to remain in declining mode, any opposite data set could lead to heavy sell off again. Investors see a real risk that the Fed’s delay in cutting rates has made a downturn inevitable. Sticky inflation is the main reason why the Fed has stayed this cautious.
Fed’s Boston member noted that she anticipates interest rates to be lower in the coming years, although she refrained from providing specific details on the timing and pace of rate cuts.She highlighted the importance of incoming data before Fed’s September meeting, stating, “We’ll have more data before our September meeting, and I don’t want to get out ahead of that.”
Yen rally is currently taking a breather after the impressive gains over the past month. Incoming GDP data will guide the future movement.
Data highlights: – No major data release.
Monday’s calendar : No major data release.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.97 |
83.89 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0917 |
1.0932 |
1.0909 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2785 |
1.2774 |
1.2727 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
146.63 |
147.78 |
146.27 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0919 |
1.0930 |
1.0942 |
|
1.0906 |
1.0896 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
146.89 |
147.51 |
148.40 |
146 |
145.38 |
|
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2762 |
1.2797 |
1.2809 |
|
1.2750 |
1.2715 |
|
|
USD/INR |
83.93 |
83.98 |
84.02 |
|
83.89 |
83.84 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0850/1.0760 |
1.1040 |
UP |
DN<1.0760 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2650 |
1.2850/1.3050 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2650 |
|
USD/JPY |
142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.76 |
84.10/84.25 |
UP |
SIDE<83.56 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.75. 50 day moving average is at 83.59. 200 day moving average is at 83.28. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.76/83.56 and important resistance is at 84.25. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 83.97, S1:83.94, S2:83.89, R1:84.01, R2:84.05.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0775. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.2850/1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 142.
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