FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.90 on Wednesday and the pair traded in the 83.90-83.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.90, loss of 7 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.97.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.93 on 14/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.96, loss of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.90. Aug Euro/INR closed at 92.63, GBP/INR at 107.80 and Yen/INR at 57.25. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.08% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 674.91 bn, as on Aug 2 nd. Reserves climbed by US D 7.5 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (14/08) |
|
USDINR |
83.93 |
|
EURINR |
92.27 |
|
GBPINR |
107.69 |
|
JPYINR |
57.04 |
In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 10577 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4533 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0%) on Wednesday. US S&P climbed 88 points (1.61%). Nikkei climbed 0.75% and Hang Seng declined 0.02 % y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0979, Pound at 1.2871, Yen at 148.94.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2471 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 81.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.91% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.
Economic news: US CPI rose 0.2% mom in July, matched expectations. CPI core (all items less food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations. For the 12-month period, CPI slowed from 3.0% yoy to 2.9% yoy, below expectation of 3.0% yoy. Headline CPI reading was the lowest since March 2021. CPI core slowed from 3.3% yoy to 3.2% yoy, matched expectations. US retail sales rose 1.0% mom to USD 709.7B in July, above expectation of 0.3% mom. U.S. stock indices climbed as Wall Street saw extended gains after strong retail sales and jobless claims data helped ease concerns over an economic slowdown.
Japanese economy showed stronger-than-expected growth in Q2, with real GDP rising by 0.8% qoq, surpassing the anticipated 0.6% qoq increase. On an annualized basis, GDP surged by 3.1%, well above the expected 2.1%.
UK GDP showed no growth in June, matched expectations.
Data highlights: – US CPI moderated to 2.9% y/y. US retail sales climbed 1% m/m.
-US industrial production declined -0.6% m/m.
-US Weekly jobless claims declined to 227k.
-EU GDP climbed 0.3% Q/Q, Industrial production declined -0.1% m/m.
-UK CPI climbed 2.2% y/y, PPI was flat m/m, RPI (output) climbed 3.6% y/y.
-UK GDP was flat m/m. Industrial production climbed 0.8% m/m and manufacturing production climbed 1.1% m/m.
Friday’s calendar : US building permits and housing starts
-UK retail sales.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.97 |
83.90 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0979 |
1.1016 |
1.0949 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2871 |
1.2873 |
1.2798 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
148.94 |
149.40 |
147.05 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0979 |
1.1009 |
1.1046 |
1.1076 |
1.0942 |
1.0912 |
1.0875 |
|
USD/JPY |
148.57 |
150.09 |
150.92 |
152.44 |
147.74 |
146.22 |
145.39 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2841 |
1.2884 |
1.2916 |
1.2959 |
1.2809 |
1.2776 |
1.2734 |
|
USD/INR |
83.92 |
83.94 |
83.98 |
|
83.88 |
83.86 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0850/1.0760 |
1.1040 |
UP |
DN<1.0760 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2650 |
1.2850/1.3050 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2650 |
|
USD/JPY |
142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.76 |
84.10/84.25 |
UP |
SIDE<83.56 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.84 |
0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.78. 50 day moving average is at 83.61. 200 day moving average is at 83.28. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.76/83.56 and important resistance is at 84.25. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 83.96, S1:83.93, S2:83.90, R1:83.99, R2:84.02.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0775. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.2850/1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 142.
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