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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • August 19, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.935 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.90-83.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.90, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.90.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.95 on 16/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.96, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.96. Aug Euro/INR closed at 92.32, GBP/INR at 108.21 and Yen/INR at 56.80. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.04% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 670 bn, as on Aug 9 th. Reserves declined by US D 4.7 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (16/08)

USDINR

83.95

EURINR

92.21

GBPINR

108.15

JPYINR

56.37

In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 18347 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 7404 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 397 points (1.65%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 11 points (0.20%). Nikkei climbed 3.88% and Hang Seng climbed 1.88 % on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.1028, Pound at 1.2944, Yen at 147.58.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2508 and WT1Crude at USD 76.60/Brent at USD 79.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.88% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7%.

Economic news: Indian trade deficit widened to USD 23.5 bn in July. India’s merchandise exports were $33.98 billion in July, while imports were $57.48 billion. Services exports were $28.43 billion in July, while services imports were $14.55 billion, compared with $28.82 billion and $15.02 billion, respectively, in June. Gold imports were $3.13 billion in July, compared with $3.06 billion in June. India, which is the world’s third largest consumer of oil, imported $13.8 billion worth of oil in July, compared with $15.05 billion in the previous month.

US Dollar is under pressure and the euro rose as much as 1.2% this week. On Wednesday, the euro hit 1.1047, its highest level against the US dollar this year.

Data highlights: – US building permits dipped to 1.4 mn and housing starts declined to 1.24 mn.

-UK retail sales climbed 0.5% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : No major data release.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.97

83.90

EUR/USD

1.1028

  

1.1029

1.0968

GBP/USD

1.2944

  

1.2946

1.2852

USD/JPY

147.58

  

149.34

147.53

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.1008

1.1048

1.1069

 

1.0987

1.0947

 

USD/JPY

148.15

148.77

149.96

 

146.96

 146.34

 

GBP/USD

1.2914

1.2976

 1.3008

 

1.2882

 1.2820

 

USD/INR

83.92

83.95

84

 

83.87

83.84

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0950/1.0850

1.1065

UP

DN<1.0950

GBP/USD

1.2650

1.2950/1.3050

SIDE

DN<1.2650

USD/JPY

145.70/142

149/152

DN

SIDE>149

USD/INR

83.76/83.65

84.10/84.25

UP

SIDE<83.65

USD/CHF

0.8575/0.84

0.8730

DN

SIDE>0.8730

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.82. 50 day moving average is at 83.64. 200 day moving average is at 83.32. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.76/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.25. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 83.96, S1:83.94, S2:83.92, R1:83.98, R2:84.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged above 84+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1065. Next major support is at 1.0950/1.0850. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.2950/1.3050.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 145.70/142.

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