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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
  • No Comments
  • August 13, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.95 y;’day and the pair traded in the 83.94-83.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.96, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.95.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.97 on 12/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.99, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.98. Aug Euro/INR closed at 91.80, GBP/INR at 107.13 and Yen/INR at 57.15. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.02% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 674.91 bn, as on Aug 2 nd. Reserves climbed by US D 7.5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (12/08)

USDINR

83.97

EURINR

91.69

GBPINR

107.26

JPYINR

57.02

In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 10577 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4533 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 20 points (0.08%) y’day. US S&P closed flat (0%). Nikkei climbed 0.56% and Hang Seng climbed 0.13 % y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0930, Pound at 1.2765, Yen at 147.45.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2463 and WT1Crude at USD 79.65/Brent at USD 81.45.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.92% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.99%.

Economic news: CPI declined to 5 year low of 3.54%. Food inflation also declined to 5.42%. According to RBI, CPI is expected to average 4.5% in this year. Inflation has now fallen to RBI’S comfort zone. IIP climbed 4.2% in June. Mfrg sector climbed 2.6%. In June this year, mining production rose 10.3 per cent, and power output increased 8.6 per cent. In the April-June quarter of this fiscal, the IIP grew 5.2 per cent compared to 4.7 per cent in the year-ago period.

OPEC downgraded its global oil demand forecast for 2024, now expecting an increase of 2.11 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly lower than the 2.25 million bpd projected last month. The organization also adjusted its demand growth estimate for next year, lowering it to 1.78 million bpd from the previous forecast of 1.85 million bpd.

Data highlights: – No major data release.

Tuesday’s calendar : US PPI

-EU and German Zew survey

-UK unemployment rate and claimant count change.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.97

83.89

EUR/USD

1.0930

  

1.0940

1.0911

GBP/USD

1.2765

  

1.2794

1.2747

USD/JPY

147.45

  

148.23

146.70

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0919

1.0930

1.0942

 

1.0906

1.0896

 

USD/JPY

146.89

147.51

148.40

  

146

145.38

 

GBP/USD

1.2762

1.2797

1.2809

 

1.2750

1.2715

 

USD/INR

83.96

83.97

83.99

 

83.95

83.93

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0850/1.0760

1.1040

UP

DN<1.0760

GBP/USD

1.2650

1.2850/1.3050

SIDE

DN<1.2650

USD/JPY

142

149/152

DN

SIDE>152

USD/INR

83.76/83.76

84.10/84.25

UP

SIDE<83.56

USD/CHF

0.84

0.8730

DN

SIDE>0.8730

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.78. 50 day moving average is at 83.61. 200 day moving average is at 83.28. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.76/83.56 and important resistance is at 84.25. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 83.98, S1:83.96, S2:83.94, R1:84, R2:84.02.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged above 84.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0775. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.2850/1.3050.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 142.

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