FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.88 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.75-83.88 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.76, loss of 12 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.88.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.78 on 20/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.79, loss of 10 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.89. Aug Euro/INR closed at 92.85, GBP/INR at 108.80 and Yen/INR at 57.10. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.05% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 670 bn, as on Aug 9 th. Reserves declined by US D 4.7 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (20/08) |
|
USDINR |
83.78 |
|
EURINR |
92.82 |
|
GBPINR |
108.88 |
|
JPYINR |
56.97 |
In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 18347 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 7404 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 126 points (0.51%) y’day. US S&P declined 11 points (0.11%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 1.98% and Hang Seng declined 0.33% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.1121, Pound at 1.3026, Yen at 145.34.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2517 and WT1Crude at USD 73/Brent at USD 77.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.81% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.
Economic news: FOMC minutes and Fed Chairman’s speech at a symposium are the focus events for the week.
Data highlights: – EU CPI climbed 2.6% y/y.
Wednesday’s calendar : FOMC minutes
|
USD/INR |
|
83.88 |
83.75 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1121 |
1.1130 |
1.1071 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3026 |
1.3054 |
1.2973 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
145.34 |
147.36 |
145.20 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1110 |
1.1149 |
1.1169 |
1.1208 |
1.1090 |
1.1051 |
1.1031 |
|
USD/JPY |
145.94 |
146.68 |
148.10 |
148.84 |
144.52 |
143.78 |
142.36 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3019 |
1.3065 |
1.3100 |
1.3146 |
1.2984 |
1.2938 |
1.2903 |
|
USD/INR |
83.80 |
83.84 |
83.93 |
|
83.72 |
83.67 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0950/1.0850 |
1.12 |
UP |
DN<1.0950 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2650 |
1.3050 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2650 |
|
USD/JPY |
145.70/142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.65 |
84.10/84.25 |
UP |
SIDE<83.65 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8575/0.84 |
0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.87. 50 day moving average is at 83.65. 200 day moving average is at 83.32. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.65 and important resistance is at 83.90/84.10. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 83.82, S1:83.745, S2:83.71, R1:83.86, R2:83.93.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.12. Next major support is at 1.0950/1.0850. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at1.3050.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 145.70/142.
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