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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • August 22, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.94 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.81-83.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.92, gain of 16 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.76.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.91 on 21/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.94, gain of 15 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.79. Aug Euro/INR closed at 93.35, GBP/INR at 109.28 and Yen/INR at 57.34. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.05% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 670 bn, as on Aug 9 th. Reserves declined by US D 4.7 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (21/08)

USDINR

83.91

EURINR

93.28

GBPINR

109.25

JPYINR

57.51

In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 18347 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 7404 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 71 points (0.29%) y’day. US S&P climbed 24 points (0.42%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.35% and Hang Seng declined 0.69% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.1144, Pound at 1.3088, Yen at 145.32.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2503 and WT1Crude at USD 72/Brent at USD 76.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.80% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.

Economic news: Fed appears well on track to cut interest rates at the September meeting after a “vast majority” of officials indicated that in the minutes of its July 30-31 meeting. The minutes, in fact showed, that some policymakers would have been willing to reduce borrowing costs at the July meeting.

Rupee has come under renewed pressure amid hedging by importers and lacklustre portfolio flows.

Data highlights: – No major data

Thursday’s calendar : -US Weekly jobless claims, consumer confidence and existing home sales

-EU PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)

-UK PMI(mfrg) and PMI(services)

USD/INR

 

  

 83.94

83.81

EUR/USD

1.1144

  

1.1174

1.11

GBP/USD

1.3088

  

1.3121

1.3009

USD/JPY

145.32

  

146.61

144.45

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.1141

1.1188

1.1215

1.1256

1.1108

1.1067

1.1034

USD/JPY

145.44

146.43

147.60

148.59

144.27

143.28

142.11

GBP/USD

1.3074

1.3139

1.3186

1.3251

1.3027

1.2962

1.2915

USD/INR

83.89

83.97

84.02

 

83.84

83.76

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0950/1.0850

1.12

UP

DN<1.0950

GBP/USD

1.2650

1.3050

SIDE

DN<1.2650

USD/JPY

145.70/142

149/152

DN

SIDE>149

USD/INR

83.76/83.65

84.10/84.25

UP

SIDE<83.65

USD/CHF

0.8575/0.84

0.8730

DN

SIDE>0.8730

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.87. 50 day moving average is at 83.66. 200 day moving average is at 83.32. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 83.91, S1:83.87, S2:83.79, R1:83.98, R2:84.03.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged above 84+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.12. Next major support is at 1.0950/1.0850. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at1.3050.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 145.70/142.

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