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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • August 26, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

USDINR opened at 83.94 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.86-83.94 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.90, loss of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.93.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.87 on 23/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.92, loss of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.96. Aug Euro/INR closed at 93.33, GBP/INR at 110.25 and Yen/INR at 57.22. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.08% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 674.5 bn, as on Aug 16 th. Reserves climbed US D 4.5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (23/08)

USDINR

83.87

EURINR

93.33

GBPINR

110.07

JPYINR

57.68

In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 11694 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 7303 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 11 points (0.05%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 64 points (1.15%) on Friday. Nikkei climbed 0.67% and Hang Seng climbed 1.44% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.1190, Pound at 1.3209, Yen at 144.37.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2512 and WT1Crude at USD 75/Brent at USD 79.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.84% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.

Economic news: Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged the progress the Fed has made over the past two years, specifically noting that the upside risks to inflation have diminished while the downside risks to employment have increased. While Powell offered nothing in terms of the speed of adjustment, other policymakers speaking this week highlighted the importance of a “gradual” and “methodical” approach to loosening policy, which supports a 25 basis point cut in September. However, Powell also emphasized that the FOMC “does not seek or welcome any further cooling in the labor market”, which suggests the next several employment reports will be critical in determining the future path of the policy rate.

US Indices rallied, USD weakened and Treasury yields settles lower after Fed Chairman’s speech.

Focus will be on US Core PCE index release on Friday.

Data highlights: – US new home sales climbed to 739k.

Monday’s calendar : – US Durables order

-German Ifo survey

USD/INR

 

  

 83.94

83.86

EUR/USD

1.1190

  

1.1201

1.1105

GBP/USD

1.3209

  

1.3232

1.3085

USD/JPY

144.37

  

146.50

144.05

 Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.1165

1.1225

1.1261

 

1.1129

1.1069

 

USD/JPY

144.97

145.89

147.42

 

143.45

142.52

 

GBP/USD

1.3175

1.3265

 1.3322

 

1.3118

1.3028

 

USD/INR

83.90

83.94

83.98

 

83.86

83.82

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.1097/1.1045

1.1245/1.1340

UP

DN<1.0980

GBP/USD

1.2650

1.3270/1.3450

SIDE

DN<1.2650

USD/JPY

142

149/152

DN

SIDE>149

USD/INR

83.76/83.65

84.10/84.25

UP

SIDE<83.76

USD/CHF

0.8575/0.84

0.8730

DN

SIDE>0.8730

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.86. 50 day moving average is at 83.67. 200 day moving average is at 83.33. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10. Spot closed at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: 83.91, S1:83.88, S2:83.84, R1:83.95, R2:83.98.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged above 84+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1245/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.1050/1.0980. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at1.3270/1.3450.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 142.

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