FX – MORNING UPDATE :
USDINR opened at 83.91 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.91-83.95 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.91, gain of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.89.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.94 on 27/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.93, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.92. Aug Euro/INR closed at 93.76, GBP/INR at 110.99 and Yen/INR at 58.05. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2.10% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 674.5 bn, as on Aug 16 th. Reserves climbed US D 4.5 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (27/08) |
|
USDINR |
83.94 |
|
EURINR |
93.75 |
|
GBPINR |
110.81 |
|
JPYINR |
58 |
In Aug , FPI’S have sold Rs 11694 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 7303 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0.0%) y’day. US S&P climbed 9 points (0.16%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.23% and Hang Seng is down 0.91%% .
Euro is now at 1.1172, Pound at 1.3249, Yen at 144.38.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2517 and WT1Crude at USD 75/Brent at USD 79.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.82% and 3 m libor closed at 5.37%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.98%.
Economic news: BoJ Deputy Governor reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to adjusting its monetary policy if confidence in the economic outlook strengthens.
Germany, Eurozone’s largest economy confirmed -0.1% contraction in GDP in Q2. Consumer sentiment showing deeper-than-expected deterioration, particularly in economic expectations. This decline follows weak Ifo business climate released yesterday.
Focus will be on US Core PCE index release on Friday.
Data highlights: – US House price index climbed 6.5% y/y and consumer confidence was reported at 103.3.
Wednesday’s calendar : – No major data
|
USD/INR |
|
83.95 |
83.91 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.1172 |
1.1191 |
1.1151 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.3249 |
1.3268 |
1.3179 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
144.38 |
145.19 |
143.92 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1175 |
1.1199 |
1.1215 |
1.1239 |
1.1159 |
1.1135 |
1.1119 |
|
USD/JPY |
144.35 |
144.78 |
145.62 |
146.05 |
143.51 |
143.08 |
142.24 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3234 |
1.3289 |
1.3323 |
1.3378 |
1.3200 |
1.3145 |
1.3111 |
|
USD/INR |
83.92 |
83.93 |
83.96 |
|
83.89 |
83.88 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.1097/1.1045 |
1.1245/1.1340 |
UP |
DN<1.0980 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2650 |
1.3270/1.3450 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2650 |
|
USD/JPY |
142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.65 |
84.10/84.30 |
UP |
SIDE<83.76 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8575/0.84 |
0.8730 |
DN |
SIDE>0.8730 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.86. 50 day moving average is at 83.69. 200 day moving average is at 83.33. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.75/83.65 and important resistance is at 84.10/84.30. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 83.93, S1:83.91, S2:83.89, R1:83.95, R2:83.97.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.10+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1245/1.1340. Next major support is at 1.1050/1.0980. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2650 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2650. Important resistance is at1.3270/1.3450.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 142.
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