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FX-Morning Update:

FX-Morning Update:
  • By Goodwill
  • No Comments
  • April 26, 2024

FX-Morning Update:

FX Morning Update USD INR April 26, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.34 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.31-83.41 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.31, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.31.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.375 on 25/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.33, gain of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.32. Apr Euro/INR closed at 89.34, GBP/INR at 104.21 and Yen/INR at 53.62. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 643 bn, as on April 12 th. Reserves decreased by USD 5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (25/04)

USDINR

83.375

EURINR

89.41

GBPINR

104.18

JPYINR

53.57

In April, FPI’S have sold Rs 7608 Cr of Equities and sold Rs 10896 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 168 points (0.75%) y’day. US S&P declined 23 points (0.46%) y’day. Nikkei closed flat and Hang Seng climbed 0.48% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0726, Pound at 1.2504, Yen at 155.63.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2328 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 89.40.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.70% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.20%.

Economic news: US real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.6% in Q1, missing expectation of 2.1%, sharply lower than Q4’s 3.4%. Price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1% in Q1, compared with an increase of 1.9% in the Q4. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.4%, compared with an increase of 1.8%. Excluding food and energy prices, PCE price index increased 3.7%, compared with an increase of 2.0%.

US 10 Year Treasury yields jumped to 4.71%. US Equities declined sharply. USD attempted to regain last few days fall. Lower growth with higher inflation poses a challenge as higher rates have failed to curb inflation, but may be having a negative impact on growth.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 207k and pending home sales climbed 3.4% m/m.

Friday’s calendar : – US Personal income, spending, Core PCE index

USD/INR

 

  

 83.405

83.31

EUR/USD

1.0726

  

1.0741

1.0678

GBP/USD

1.2504

  

1.2525

1.2454

USD/JPY

155.63

  

155.76

155.26

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0715

1.0752

1.0778

1.0815

1.0689

1.0652

1.0626

GBP/USD

1.2495

1.2536

1.2566

1.2607

1.2465

1.2424

1.2394

USD/JPY

155.54

155.82

156.04

156.32

155.32

155.04

154.82

USD/INR

83.34

83.37

83.44

 

83.28

83.24

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.06/1.0520

1.0725/1.08

DN

UP>1.0885

GBP/USD

1.2330/1.2220

1.2485/1.2540

DN

UP>1.2540

USD/JPY

152/150.80

154.80/156

UP

SIDE<152

USD/INR

83.27/83.17/83.10

83.47/83.70

UP

SIDE<83.17

USD/CHF

0.89

0.9230

UP

SIDE<0.89

Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.40. 50 day moving average is at 83.11. 200 day moving average is at 82.97. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.27/83.17/83.10 and important resistance is at 83.47/83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:

PP: 83.34, S1:83.28, S2:83.24, R1:83.38, R2:83.44.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27/83.17/83.10.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0725/1.08. Next major support is at 1.06/1.0520/1.0450. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0885. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2710 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2330/1.2230. Important resistance is at 1.2485/1.2540.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 150.80. Important resistance is at 154.80/156 and support is at 152/150.80.

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