FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR April 4, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.35 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.34-83.47 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.47, gain of 6 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.41.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.42 on 03/04. Apr USD/INR closed at 83.53, gain of 6 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.47. Euro/INR closed at 89.98, GBP/INR at 104.98 and Yen/INR at 55. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 642.36 bn, as on March 22 nd.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (03/04) |
|
USDINR |
83.42 |
|
EURINR |
89.85 |
|
GBPINR |
104.87 |
|
JPYINR |
55.01 |
In March, FPI’S bought Rs 32927 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 13818 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 18 points (0.08%) y’day. US S&P climbed 5 points (0.11%) y’day. Nikkei declined 0.98% and Hang Seng declined 1.22% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0843, Pound at 1.2652, Yen at 151.63.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2301 and WT1Crude at USD 85.60/Brent at USD 89.60.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.35% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.11%.
Economic news: RBI’S MPC meeting is underway and policy decision is expected tomorrow.
US Dollar declined against majors despite stronger than expected ADP private job data, with marked acceleration in annual wage growth for job-changers. US ISM Services PMI fell from 52.6 to 51.4 in March, below expectation of 52.8.
US nonfarm payrolls is the important event for the week.
EU March CPI eased to 2.4% y/y, down from 2.6% in February and below of the market estimate of 2.6%
Data highlights: – US ADP employment report showed that private sector added 184k jobs, better than expected. ISM(services) declined to 51.4.
-EU CPI estimate declined to 2.4% y/y and unemployment rates was reported at 6.5%.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims
-EU PPI and PMI(services)
-UK PMI(services)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.47 |
83.34 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0843 |
1.0841 |
1.0764 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2652 |
1.2657 |
1.2563 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
151.63 |
151.68 |
151.54 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0814 |
1.0864 |
1.0891 |
1.0941 |
1.0787 |
1.0737 |
1.0710 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2624 |
1.2684 |
1.2718 |
1.2780 |
1.2591 |
1.2530 |
1.2497 |
|
USD/JPY |
151.66 |
151.88 |
152.17 |
152.39 |
151.36 |
151.15 |
150.85 |
|
USD/INR |
83.42 |
83.51 |
83.555 |
|
83.38 |
83.295 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.07 |
1.0875 |
DN |
UP>1.0875 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2575 |
1.2670/1.28 |
DN |
SIDE>1.2670 |
|
USD/JPY |
149/146.50/144.35 |
152.50 |
UP |
SIDE<149 |
|
USD/INR |
83.27/83.20 |
83.47/83.70/84.10 |
UP |
SIDE<83. |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8890/0.8725 |
0.91 |
UP |
DN<0.8725 |
Technicals: Spot closed above major moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.05. 50 day moving average is at 83.03. 200 day moving average is at 82.91. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.27/83.20 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for April contract are:
PP: 83.51, S1:83.42, S2:83.32, R1:83.62, R2:83.70.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD imports be hedged on decline to 83.27.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09/1.10. Next major support is at 1.07. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important support at 1.07. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.29 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2575. Important resistance is at 1.28/1.29.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 146.50. Important resistance is at 152.50 and support is at 149/146.50.
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