FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update August 02, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.68 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.68-83.76 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.74, gain of 4 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.70.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.73 on 01/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.81, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.78. Aug Euro/INR closed at 90.61, GBP/INR at 107.46 and Yen/INR at 55.87. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.84% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 670.85 bn, as on July 12 th. Reserves climbed by US D 4.2 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (01/08) |
|
USDINR |
83.73 |
|
EURINR |
90.61 |
|
GBPINR |
107.46 |
|
JPYINR |
55.87 |
In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 30824 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 15824 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 60 points (0.25%) y’day. US S&P declined 75 points (1.37%). Nikkei declined 2.62% and Hang Seng declined 0.23% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0794, Pound at 1.2723, Yen at 149.54.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2456 and WT1Crude at USD 77/Brent at USD 80.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.96% and 3 m libor closed at 5.51%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.04%.
Economic news: BOE cut rates by 25 bps to 5%, but cautioned against expectations of series of rate cuts. BoE acknowledged the risk that inflationary pressures from second-round effects could prove more enduring in the medium term. Balancing these factors, the BoE said it is now appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictiveness “slightly.” The central bank repeated, however, that “monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.” And finally, the BoE said it will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at “each” meeting.
According to BOE, GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and headline inflation is expected to creep to 2.7%.
Data highlights: – US weekly jobless claims climbed to 249k, ISM(mfrg) declined steeply to 46.8.
-US Construction spending declined -0.3% m/m.
-EU PMI dipped to 45.8.
-UK PMI(mfrg) was finalized at 52.1.
Friday’s calendar : – US nonfarm payrolls and factory orders.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.76 |
83.68 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0794 |
1.0836 |
1.0776 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2723 |
1.2865 |
1.2726 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
149.54 |
150.90 |
148.50 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0801 |
1.0826 |
1.0861 |
1.0885 |
1.0766 |
1.0741 |
1.0706 |
|
USD/JPY |
149.59 |
150.68 |
151.99 |
153.08 |
148.28 |
147.19 |
145.89 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2777 |
1.2828 |
1.2916 |
1.2967 |
1.2689 |
1.2638 |
1.2550 |
|
USD/INR |
83.72 |
83.77 |
83.805 |
|
83.69 |
83.645 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.08/1.0760 |
1.0950/1.1040 |
SIDE |
DN<1.08 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2770/1.2650 |
1.3050/1.3150 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2650 |
|
USD/JPY |
149 |
154 |
DN |
UP>157 |
|
USD/INR |
83.56/83.45/83.34 |
83.90/84.02 |
UP |
SIDE<83.56 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8730 |
0.9050 |
DN |
UP>0.9050 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.62. 50 day moving average is at 83.51. 200 day moving average is at 83.27. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.56/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.90. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 83.78, S1:83.74, S2:83.72, R1:83.81, R2:83.84.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0950/1.1040. Next major support is at 1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0950. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2770/1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 155.50/157 and support is at 151.50.
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