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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • August 7, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR August 07, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.92 y;’day and the pair traded in the 83.84-83.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.92, loss of 18 ps for USD as against prior close of 84.10.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.91 on 06/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.96, loss of 22 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 84.18. Aug Euro/INR closed at 91.69, GBP/INR at 106.75 and Yen/INR at 57.96. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 667 bn, as on July 26 th. Reserves declined by US D 3.5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (06/08)

USDINR

83.91

EURINR

91.83

GBPINR

107.10

JPYINR

57.52

In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 27957 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 21863 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 63 points (0.26%) y’day. US S&P climbed 53 points (1.04%). Nikkei climbed 10.25% and Hang Seng declined 0.31% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0915, Pound at 1.2704, Yen at 146.64.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2384 and WT1Crude at USD 73/Brent at USD 76.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.90% and 3 m libor closed at 5.43%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.98%.

Economic news: Rupee gained and Global Equities reclaimed part of their losses as Fed member assuaged markets. Fed member indicated that Fed would work to ensure that employment levels are healthy.

Nikkei staged a dramatic 10% rebound in early trading after Monday’s historical plunge of -12.4%. However, this recovery was not mirrored by other Asian markets. Investor sentiment remains fragile, with worries over US recession dominating the headlines.

BOJ Deputy Governor said the central bank won’t hike interest rates when markets were unstable. His comments sparked some optimism that Japanese interest rates will not rise as sharply as initially forecast by the bank. 

Data highlights: – German factory orders climbed 3.9% m/m.

-Eu retail sales declined -0.3% m/m.

-UK PMI(construction) climbed to 55.3.

Wednesday’s calendar : – German industrial production.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.97

83.84

EUR/USD

1.0915

  

1.0964

1.0903

GBP/USD

1.2704

  

1.2805

1.2672

USD/JPY

146.64

  

146.38

143.62

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0931

1.0961

1.0993

1.1022

1.0900

1.0871

1.0839

USD/JPY

144.76

145.90

147,52

148.66

143.14

142

140.39

GBP/USD

1.2722

1.2772

1.2856

1.2906

1.2639

1.2588

1.2505

USD/INR

83.91

83.98

84.04

 

83.85

83.78

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.08/1.0760

1.1040

UP

DN<1.0760

GBP/USD

1.2705/1.2650

1.3050/1.3150

SIDE

DN<1.2650

USD/JPY

142

149/152

DN

SIDE>152

USD/INR

83.76/83.76

84.10/84.25

UP

SIDE<83.56

USD/CHF

0.8730

0.9050

DN

UP>0.9050

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.69. 50 day moving average is at 83.55. 200 day moving average is at 83.28. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.76/83.56 and important resistance is at 84.25. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:

PP: , S1:, S2:, R1:, R2:.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0775. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2705/1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.

USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 142.

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