FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR August 09, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.95 y;’day and the pair traded in the 83.92-83.97 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.95, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.95.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.96 on 08/08. Aug USD/INR closed at 84, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 84. Aug Euro/INR closed at 91.75, GBP/INR at 106.55 and Yen/INR at 57.60. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 2% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 667 bn, as on July 26 th. Reserves declined by US D 3.5 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (08/08) |
|
USDINR |
83.96 |
|
EURINR |
91.83 |
|
GBPINR |
106.67 |
|
JPYINR |
57.40 |
In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 27957 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 21863 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 180 points (0.74%) y’day. US S&P climbed 119 points (2.3%). Nikkei declined 0.84% and Hang Seng climbed 0.08% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0918, Pound at 1.2748, Yen at 147.12.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2425 and WT1Crude at USD 76/Brent at USD 79.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.97% and 3 m libor closed at 5.43%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.99%.
Economic news: RBI kept repo rates unchanged at 6.5% by 4-2 vote. GDP is expected to be 7.2% and inflation is expected to average 4.5%. RBI Governor said that bank cannoy overlook persistent high Food inflation as it will have spill over effect. He said that Indian growth is strong with inflation declining. He also added that while short term Global economic outlook is strong, medium term is challenging. He also added that Current account deficit is manageable. He also directed Banks to boost deposits growth to avoid structural liquidity issues.
Data highlights: – – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 233k.
Friday’s calendar : No major data release.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.97 |
83.92 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0918 |
1.0946 |
1.0882 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2748 |
1.2754 |
1.2664 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
147.12 |
147.55 |
145.53 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0915 |
1.0948 |
1.0979 |
1.1012 |
1.0884 |
1.0851 |
1.0821 |
|
USD/JPY |
146.75 |
148.07 |
148.87 |
150.19 |
145.95 |
144.63 |
143.83 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2722 |
1.2780 |
1.2813 |
1.2871 |
1.2690 |
1.2631 |
1.2599 |
|
USD/INR |
83.94 |
83.97 |
83.99 |
|
83.91 |
83.89 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.08/1.0760 |
1.1040 |
UP |
DN<1.0760 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2705/1.2650 |
1.3050/1.3150 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2650 |
|
USD/JPY |
142 |
149/152 |
DN |
SIDE>152 |
|
USD/INR |
83.76/83.76 |
84.10/84.25 |
UP |
SIDE<83.56 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8730 |
0.9050 |
DN |
UP>0.9050 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.73. 50 day moving average is at 83.58. 200 day moving average is at 83.28. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.76/83.56 and important resistance is at 84.25. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Aug contract are:
PP: 84, S1:83.96, S2:83.93, R1:84.04, R2:84.07.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged above 84.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0775. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0775. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2705/1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.
USD/YEN: The pair is below major averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 149/152 and support is at 142.