FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR December 11, 2023
USDINR opened at 83.37 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.34-83.395 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.38, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.38.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.37 on 08/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 83.43 y’day, gain of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.41. Dec Euro/INR closed at 90.02, GBP/INR at 104.99 and Yen/INR at 57.87. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.62% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 604 bn as on Dec 1 st. FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (08/12) |
|
USDINR |
83.37 |
|
EURINR |
89.89 |
|
GBPINR |
104.91 |
|
JPYINR |
57.88 |
In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 16761 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5596 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 66 points (0.33%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 18 points (0.41%) on Friday. Nikkei declined 1.77% and Hang Seng declined 0.11% on Friday.
Euro is now at 1.0764, Pound at 1.2550, Yen at 144.95.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2004 and WT1Crude at USD 71/Brent at USD 75.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.22% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.265%.
Economic news: RBI kept repo rates steady at 6.5%. FY 24 GDP has been revised upwards to 7% and inflation is projected at 5.4%.
US Non-Farm Payroll employment grew 199k in November, slightly above expectation of 190k. That was below the average monthly gain of 240k over the prior 12 months.Unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.7%, below expectation of 3.9%. Participation rate rose 0.1% to 62.8%.Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.3% mom. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings rose 4.0% yoy.
USD gained on robust employment data. Strong wage growth indicates that inflation pressures are persistent and Fed needs to be convinced that labor market has turned soft, before indicating rate cuts.
JPY gained on signal from BOJ that it will be ending its negative interest rate soon.
Data highlights: –
Monday’s calendar : – No major data
|
USD/INR |
|
83.395 |
83.34 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0764 |
1.0801 |
1.0724 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2550 |
1.2602 |
1.2502 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
144.95 |
145.21 |
142.50 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0763 |
1.0802 |
1.0840 |
|
1.0725 |
1.0686 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2551 |
1.2600 |
1.2651 |
|
1.25 |
1.2451 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
144.39 |
147.07 |
150 |
152.68 |
141.46 |
138.78 |
135.85 |
|
USD/INR |
83.37 |
83.40 |
83.425 |
|
83.345 |
83.315 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0735/1.0665 |
1.0860/1.0960/1.1018 |
SIDE |
UP>1.0860 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2450/1.2325 |
1.2745 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2325 |
|
USD/JPY |
141.50 |
147.15/149.70 |
DN |
UP>149.70 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<83.02 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8650 |
0.8950 |
DN |
UP>0.8950 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.31. 50 day moving average is at 83.26.200 day moving average is at 82.62. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 83.41, S1:83.39, S2:83.35, R1:83.45, R2:83.47.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.45/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, but below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0860/1.0960/1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1018. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2735 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2440/1.2325. Important resistance is at 1.2745.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 50,100 day major averages, but above 200 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 147.15/149.70 and support is at 141.50.