FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR December 14, 2023
USDINR opened at 83.37 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.37-83.43 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.40, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.37.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.395 on 13/12. Dec USD/INR closed at 83.45 y’day, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.40. Dec Euro/INR closed at 90.02, GBP/INR at 104.48 and Yen/INR at 57.46. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.63% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 604 bn as on Dec 1 st. FX reserves climbed USD 6 bn.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (13/12) |
|
USDINR |
83.395 |
|
EURINR |
89.93 |
|
GBPINR |
104.65 |
|
JPYINR |
57.20 |
In Dec, FPI’S have bought Rs 16761 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 5596 Cr of debt . In 2022-23 fiscal year, FII’S have net sold Rs 27593 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 838 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty climbed 19 points (0.10%) y’day. US S&P climbed 63 points (1.37%) y’day. Nikkei climbed 0.25% and Hang Seng declined 0.94% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0886, Pound at 1.2629, Yen at 142.42.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2031 and WT1Crude at USD 70/Brent at USD 75.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 3.98% and 3 m libor closed at 5.64%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.26%.
Economic news: Fed has removed rate hike scenario and has signaled that rate has peaked at 5.25-5.5% band. It is also now projecting three rate cuts next year, to 4.6%. This is against two rate cuts projected last time. Fed Chairman said that it is too premature to declare victory against inflation. However, he did not aggressively push back against rate cuts next year. As per Fed, Core PCE is expected to soften to 3.2% this year as against earlier projection of 3.7% and is further expected to drop to 2.4% next year. Unemployment is expected to be 4.1% for next year. GDP is expected to be 2.6% in this year and expected to soften to 1.4% next year.
ECB and BOE meetings will dominate today’s Global market developments.
Data highlights: – US PPI was flat m/m.
-EU Industrial production declined -0.7% m/m.
-UK industrial and manufacturing production declined -0.8% m/m and -1.1% m/m respectively.
Thursday’s calendar : – US Weekly jobless claims, retail sales
-ECB and BOE meetings
|
USD/INR |
|
83.43 |
83.37 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0886 |
1.0896 |
1.0773 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2629 |
1.2635 |
1.2500 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
142.42 |
146.01 |
142.09 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0850 |
1.0927 |
1.0973 |
1.1050 |
1.0804 |
1.0727 |
1.0681 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2585 |
1.2670 |
1.2720 |
1.2806 |
1.2535 |
1.2450 |
1.2400 |
|
USD/JPY |
143.63 |
145.17 |
147.55 |
149.09 |
141.25 |
139.71 |
137.34 |
|
USD/INR |
83.40 |
83.43 |
83.46 |
|
83.37 |
83.34 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0735/1.0665 |
1.0960/1.1018 |
UP |
DN<1.0735 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2450/1.2325 |
1.2745 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2325 |
|
USD/JPY |
141.50 |
147.15/149.70 |
DN |
UP>149.70 |
|
USD/INR |
83.03/82.80 |
83.47 |
UP |
SIDE<83.02 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8650 |
0.8950 |
DN |
UP>0.8950 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 day average and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.33. 50 day moving average is at 83.27.200 day moving average is at 82.62. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.03/82.80 and important resistance is at 83.48. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for Dec contract are:
PP: 83.40, S1:83.37, S2:83.35, R1:83.43, R2:83.45.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.45/83.50. Imports be hedged at 83.05 for 3 months.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above 50, but below 100 and 200 day major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0860/1.0960/1.1018. Next major support is at 1.0735/1.0665. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.1018. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.0450.
GBP/USD: The pair is above all major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2735 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2035. Important support is at 1.2440/1.2325. Important resistance is at 1.2745.
USD/YEN: The pair is below 50,100 day major averages, but above 200 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 151.75. Important resistance is at 147.15/149.70 and support is at 141.50.