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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • July 10, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR July 10, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.49 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.47-83.51 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.50, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.51.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.48 on 09/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.55, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.55. July Euro/INR closed at 90.50, GBP/INR at 106.94 and Yen/INR at 52.04. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.66% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 652 bn, as on June 28 th. Reserves declined by US D 1.73 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (09/07)

USDINR

83.48

EURINR

90.39

GBPINR

106.92

JPYINR

51.90

In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 6408 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4097 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 112 points (0.46%) y’day. US S&P climbed 4 points (0.07%). Nikkei climbed 1.92% and Hang Seng closed flat y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0814, Pound at 1.2788, Yen at 161.54.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2367 and WT1Crude at USD 81.50/Brent at USD 84.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.31% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7%.

Economic news: Focus is in Indian and US CPI data.

Fed Chairman in his testimony to US Congress flagged cooling labor market as an indicator for rate cuts. Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment,” Powell said, after noting that labor market indicators “have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic”

The Fed’s acknowledgement that risks are more two-sided suggests that the central bank’s outlook on the balance of risks is shifting …  “in ways that would plausibly underpin a cut in September rate cut,” , 

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said last week that he expected a “bumpy road” for inflation in the coming months and that there was no predetermined path for rate decisions.

Data highlights: –

Wednesday’s calendar : – No major data release.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.51

83.47

EUR/USD

1.0821

  

1.0833

1.0805

GBP/USD

1.2801

  

1.2826

1.2778

USD/JPY

161.11

  

161.51

160.74

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0818

1.0831

1.0846

1.0859

1.0803

1.0790

1.0775

USD/JPY

161.20

161.66

161.97

162.43

160.89

160.43

160.11

GBP/USD

1.2797

1.2816

1.2845

1.2864

1.2768

1.2749

1.2720

USD/INR

83.49

83.51

83.53

 

83.47

83.45

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0740/1.0665

1.09

UP

DN<1.0740

GBP/USD

1.2615

1.2860

UP

DN<1.2615

USD/JPY

158.80

162

UP

SIDE<158.80

USD/INR

83.34

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.30

USD/CHF

0.8825/0.8730

0.9050

DN

UP>0.9050

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.51. 50 day moving average is at 83.45. 200 day moving average is at 83.23. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 83.54, S1:83.51, S2:83.48, R1:83.58, R2:83.60.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2610. Important resistance is at 1.2860.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 154.55. Important resistance is at 162 and support is at 158.80.

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