FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR July 12, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.51 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.49-83.59 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.59, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.49.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.53 on 11/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.62, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.55. July Euro/INR closed at 90.67, GBP/INR at 107.43 and Yen/INR at 51.78. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.64% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 652 bn, as on June 28 th. Reserves declined by US D 1.73 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (11/07) |
|
USDINR |
83.53 |
|
EURINR |
90.52 |
|
GBPINR |
107.44 |
|
JPYINR |
51.65 |
In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 6408 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4097 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0%) y’day. US S&P declined 49 points (0.88%). Nikkei climbed 1% and Hang Seng climbed 2.06% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0871, Pound at 1.2908, Yen at 159.23.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2409 and WT1Crude at USD 82.90/Brent at USD 85.70.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.22% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7%.
Economic news: US Consumer prices declined by 0.1%, led lower by a drop in energy prices and a modest increase in food prices. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI increased by just 0.1% (0.06% unrounded), which was the smallest increase since January 2021.Over the past three months, the core CPI has increased at a 2.1% annualized pace. This marks the smallest three-month change in core prices since March 2021.
Declining inflation and rise in unemployment rate should strengthen Fed’s hand to cut rates in Sept.
UK GDP grew by 0.4% mom in May, surpassing expectations of 0.2% mom increase. The primary driver of this growth was a 0.3% mom rise in services output, which significantly contributed to the overall monthly GDP increase
Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims dipped to 222k and CPI declined -0.1% m/m.
-UK industrial and manufacturing production climbed 0.2% and 0.4% respectively.
Friday’s calendar : – US PPI
|
USD/INR |
|
83.59 |
83.49 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0871 |
1.0901 |
1.0826 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2908 |
1.2950 |
1.2846 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
159.23 |
161.77 |
157.43 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0864 |
1.0902 |
1.0939 |
1.0976 |
1.0827 |
1.0789 |
1.0752 |
|
USD/JPY |
159.33 |
161.23 |
163.68 |
165.58 |
156.89 |
154.98 |
152.54 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2902 |
1.2958 |
1.3005 |
1.3061 |
1.2854 |
1.2799 |
1.2751 |
|
USD/INR |
83.56 |
83.62 |
83.66 |
|
83.53 |
83.46 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0740/1.0665 |
1.09 |
UP |
DN<1.0740 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2615 |
1.2860 |
UP |
DN<1.2615 |
|
USD/JPY |
158.80 |
162 |
UP |
SIDE<158.80 |
|
USD/INR |
83.34 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.30 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8825/0.8730 |
0.9050 |
DN |
UP>0.9050 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.49. 50 day moving average is at 83.45. 200 day moving average is at 83.23. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 83.59, S1:83.55, S2:83.50, R1:83.65, R2:83.68.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0665. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2610. Important resistance is at 1.2860.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 154.55. Important resistance is at 162 and support is at 158.80.