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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • July 16, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR July 16, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.54 Y’day and the pair traded in the 83.53-83.62 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.60, gain of 8 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.52.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.54 on 12/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.62, gain of 7 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.55. July Euro/INR closed at 91.20, GBP/INR at 108.51 and Yen/INR at 52.85. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.68% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 657 bn, as on July 5 th. Reserves climbed by US D 5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (15/07)

USDINR

83.57

EURINR

90.99

GBPINR

108.36

JPYINR

52.85

In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 13799 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 6277 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 85 points (0.35%) Y’day. US S&P climbed 15 points (0.28%). Nikkei declined 2.46% on Friday and Hang Seng declined 1.52% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0891, Pound at 1.2964, Yen at 158.66.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2428 and WT1Crude at USD 80.60/Brent at USD 84.60.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.21% and 3 m libor closed at 5.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.99%.

Economic news: ECB meeting, US retail sales and Fed Chairman’s speech are important events for coming week.

Fed Chairman Powell said that while “it’s been appropriate to focus mainly on inflation” for a long time, the cooling in the labor market now also warrants the Fed to watch out for an unexpected weakening in the labor market that may also provide “a reason for reaction by us.”

Powell’s comments on “paying more attention to the labor side of the dual mandate suggest that the Fed is getting more confident about a rate cut at some point soon,”

Data highlights: – EU industrial production declined -0.6% m/m.

Tuesday’s calendar : -US retail sales

-EU and German Zew surveys

USD/INR

 

  

 83.62

83.53

EUR/USD

1.0891

  

1.0922

1.0883

GBP/USD

1.2964

  

1.2995

1.2962

USD/JPY

158.66

  

158.37

157.18

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0901

1.0919

1.0940

1.0959

1.0880

1.0862

1.0840

USD/JPY

157.90

158.62

159.09

159.81

157.43

156.71

156.24

GBP/USD

1.2976

1.2990

1.3009

1.3023

1.2957

1.2943

1.2924

USD/INR

83.58

83.64

83.67

 

83.54

83.49

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0845/1.08/1.0760

1.0915

UP

DN<1.0760

GBP/USD

1.2865/1.2735

1.3150

UP

DN<1.2615

USD/JPY

157.50/154.50

162

UP

SIDE<157.50

USD/INR

83.34

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.30

USD/CHF

0.8825/0.8730

0.9050

DN

UP>0.9050

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.50. 50 day moving average is at 83.46. 200 day moving average is at 83.24. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 83.61, S1:83.57, S2:83.51, R1:83.66, R2:83.71.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0915 Next major support is at 1.0840/1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0665. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2865/1.2735. Important resistance is at 1.3150.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 162 and support is at 157.50/154.75.

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