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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • July 19, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR July 19, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.58 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.56-83.67 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.63, gain of 5 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.58.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.64 on 18/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.65, gain of 5 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.60. July Euro/INR closed at 91.47, GBP/INR at 108.63 and Yen/INR at 53.42. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.74% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 657 bn, as on July 5 th. Reserves climbed by US D 5 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (18/07)

USDINR

83.64

EURINR

91.44

GBPINR

108.74

JPYINR

53.53

In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 13799 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 6277 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 26 points (0.11%) on Tuesday. US S&P declined 44 points (0.78%). Nikkei declined 2.5% and Hang Seng climbed 0.22% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0891, Pound at 1.2942, Yen at 157.44.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2428 and WT1Crude at USD 80.60/Brent at USD 84.60.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.22% and 3 m libor closed at 5.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.

Economic news: ECB maintained status quo and accompanying statement highlighted that domestic price pressures remain high, services inflation is elevated, and headline inflation is likely to stay above target well into next year. This outlook will keep ECB cautious regarding any further policy easing. There seems to be no rush into another rate cut. The next decision is heavily dependent on new economic projections available by the September meeting.

Data highlights: – US Weekly jobless claims climbed to 243k.

-UK unemployment rate was reported at 4.4% and claimant count change is at 32.3 k.

Friday’s calendar : – UK retail sales

USD/INR

 

  

 83.67

83.56

EUR/USD

1.0891

  

1.0941

1.0893

GBP/USD

1.2942

  

1.3015

1.2939

USD/JPY

157.44

  

157.41

155.37

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0910

1.0927

1.0958

1.0975

1.0879

1.0862

1.0830

USD/JPY

156.72

158.07

158.76

160.11

156.03

154.68

153.99

GBP/USD

1.2965

1.2991

1.3041

1.3066

1.2915

1.2889

1.2840

USD/INR

83.62

83.68

83.73

 

83.57

83.51

 

 MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0845/1.08/1.0760

1.1040

UP

DN<1.0760

GBP/USD

1.2865/1.2735

1.3150

UP

DN<1.2615

USD/JPY

155.90/154.50

162

SIDE

UP>158.40

USD/INR

83.34

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.30

USD/CHF

0.8825/0.8730

0.9050

DN

UP>0.9050

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.52. 50 day moving average is at 83.47. 200 day moving average is at 83.24. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 83.64, S1:83.59, S2:83.53, R1:83.70, R2:83.75.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040 Next major support is at 1.0840/1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0665. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2865/1.2735. Important resistance is at 1.3150.

USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 158.40/162 and support is at 155.90/154.75.

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