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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • July 23, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR July 23, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.65 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.64-83.67 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.67, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.67.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.66 on 22/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.68, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.69. July Euro/INR closed at 91.11, GBP/INR at 108.12 and Yen/INR at 53.30. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.75% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 666 bn, as on July 12 th. Reserves climbed by US D 9 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (22/07)

USDINR

83.66

EURINR

91.06

GBPINR

108.03

JPYINR

53.41

In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 29218 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11365 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty declined 21 points (.09%) y’day. US S&P climbed 59 points (1.08%). Nikkei declined 1.28% and Hang Seng climbed 1.25% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0891, Pound at 1.2933, Yen at 156.81.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2418 and WT1Crude at USD 78.50/Brent at USD 82.60.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.24% and 3 m libor closed at 5.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 6.97%.

Economic news: Economic survey projects GDP growth rate at 6.5% to 7% for this fiscal. Survey mentions concern for high food inflation, weak private consumption and excessive speculative trading in derivatives market.

Market awaits Union budget.

Bundesbank’s latest monthly report indicates that while some factors are bolstering the economy, they are simultaneously complicating efforts to bring inflation down to target. Bundesbank advised that “possible further interest rate cuts should therefore be carefully considered in light of current data.”

Data highlights: – No major data

Tuesday’s calendar : – US existing home sales

-EU Consumer confidence

USD/INR

 

  

 83.67

83.64

EUR/USD

1.0891

  

1.0899

1.0872

GBP/USD

1.2933

  

1.2943

1.2905

USD/JPY

156.81

  

157.62

156.28

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0887

1.0902

1.0914

1.0929

1.0875

1.0860

1.0848

USD/JPY

156.94

157.60

158.28

158.94

156.26

155.6-

154.92

GBP/USD

1.2926

1.2947

1.2963

1.2984

1.2909

1.2889

1.2872

USD/INR

83.66

83.68

83.69

 

83.65

83.63

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.0845/1.08/1.0760

1.0950/1.1040

UP

DN<1.08

GBP/USD

1.28/1.2750

1.3050/1.3150

UP

DN<1.2615

USD/JPY

155.50

158/159.75

SIDE

UP>159.75

USD/INR

83.56/83.45/83.34

83.70

UP

SIDE<83.56

USD/CHF

0.8825/0.8730

0.9050

DN

UP>0.9050

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.53. 50 day moving average is at 83.48. 200 day moving average is at 83.26. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.56/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 83.68, S1:83.66, S2:83.65, R1:83.69, R2:83.71.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged at 83.65+.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0840/1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0665. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.28/1.2735. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 158/159.75 and support is at 155.50.

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Risk Disclosures
on Derivatives

  • 9 out of 10 individual traders in equity Futures and Options Segment, incurred net losses.
  • On an average, loss makers registered net trading loss close to ₹ 50,000.
  • Over and above the net trading losses incurred, loss makers expended an additional 28% of net trading losses as transaction costs.
  • Those making net trading profits, incurred between 15% to 50% of such profits as transaction cost.
Source: SEBI study dated January 25, 2023 on “Analysis of Profit and Loss of Individual Traders dealing in equity Futures and Options (F&O) Segment”, wherein Aggregate Level findings are based on annual Profit/Loss incurred by individual traders in equity F&O during FY 2021-22.

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