FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR July 25, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.70 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.68-83.73 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.72, unchanged for USD as against prior close of 83.72.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.70 on 24/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.72, loss of 1 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.73. July Euro/INR closed at 90.68, GBP/INR at 108 and Yen/INR at 54. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.75% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 666 bn, as on July 12 th. Reserves climbed by US D 9 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (24/07) |
|
USDINR |
83.70 |
|
EURINR |
90.77 |
|
GBPINR |
107.85 |
|
JPYINR |
54.14 |
In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 29218 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11365 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 65 points (0.27%) y’day. US S&P declined 128 points (2.31%). Nikkei declined 1.27% and Hang Seng declined 0.91% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0839, Pound at 1.2896, Yen at 153.03.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2390 and WT1Crude at USD 77/Brent at USD 81.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.26% and 3 m libor closed at 5.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.08%.
Economic news: Euro is under pressure following disappointing PMI data, which showed significant deterioration in the manufacturing sector while services growth remained moderate only. This data should justify a September ECB rate cut, although inflation data might complicate further cuts beyond that. On the other hand, Sterling is supported by solid PMI figures, bolstering the stance of BoE hawks against a rate cut in August.
Disappointing earnings from heavyweight technology stocks sparked deep losses on Wall Street. Tech was already nursing steep losses over the past weeks, as the sector saw heavy profit-taking after hype over AI drove a major melt-up in valuation over the past year. Expectations of lower interest rates- on which the Fed is set to provide more cues next week- also sparked a rotation into more economically sensitive sectors.
Data highlights: – US new home sales declined to 617k.
-EU PMI(mfrg) dipped to 45.6 and PMI (services) dipped to 51.9.
-UK PMI(mfrg) was reported at 51.8 and PMI(services) was reported at 52.4.
Thursday’s calendar : – US GDP
-US durables order and weekly jobless claims
-German Ifo survey
|
USD/INR |
|
83.73 |
83.68 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0839 |
1.0867 |
1.0825 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2896 |
1.2939 |
1.2876 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
153.03 |
156 |
153.11 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0843 |
1.0861 |
1.0885 |
1.0903 |
1.0819 |
1.0801 |
1.0777 |
|
USD/JPY |
154.35 |
155.59 |
157.24 |
158.48 |
152.70 |
151.46 |
149.81 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2905 |
1.2934 |
1.2968 |
1.2996 |
1.2871 |
1.2842 |
1.2808 |
|
USD/INR |
83.71 |
83.74 |
83.76 |
|
83.69 |
83.66 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0845/1.08/1.0760 |
1.0950/1.1040 |
SIDE |
DN<1.08 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.28/1.2750 |
1.3050/1.3150 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2615 |
|
USD/JPY |
155.50 |
158/159.75 |
SIDE |
UP>159.75 |
|
USD/INR |
83.56/83.45/83.34 |
83.90/84.02 |
UP |
SIDE<83.56 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8825/0.8730 |
0.9050 |
DN |
UP>0.9050 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.55. 50 day moving average is at 83.48. 200 day moving average is at 83.26. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.56/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.90. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 83.715, S1:83.69, S2:83.66, R1:83.74, R2:83.76.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0840/1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0665. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.28/1.2735. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 158/159.75 and support is at 155.50.
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