FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR July 26, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.72 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.66-83.75 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.75, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.72.
RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.71 on 25/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.75, gain of 3 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.72. July Euro/INR closed at 90.85, GBP/INR at 107.89 and Yen/INR at 55.04. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.75% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 666 bn, as on July 12 th. Reserves climbed by US D 9 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (25/07) |
|
USDINR |
83.71 |
|
EURINR |
90.70 |
|
GBPINR |
107.84 |
|
JPYINR |
54.82 |
In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 29218 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 11365 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty closed flat (0%) y’day. US S&P climbed 20 points (0.38%). Nikkei declined 3.14% and Hang Seng declined 1.77% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0839, Pound at 1.2896, Yen at 153.03.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2360 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 82.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.25% and 3 m libor closed at 5.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.08%.
Economic news: The advance estimate of US GDP growth in Q2 2024 showed a robust 2.8% annualized increase, significantly exceeding the anticipated 2.0% and doubling Q1’s pace of 1.4%. This stronger-than-expected growth was driven by rises in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Notably, imports also increased, which are subtracted in the GDP calculation.
Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index fell from 88.6 to 87.0 in July, missing expectations of 89.0. Ifo noted that sentiment has “declined considerably,” with companies expressing growing dissatisfaction with the current business situation. The level of skepticism regarding the coming months has increased notably. The German economy, as described by Ifo, is currently “stuck in crisis.”
Data highlights: – US GDP climbed 2.8% q/q.
-US durables order declined -6.6% m/m and weekly jobless claims was reported at 235k.
Friday’s calendar : – US personal income, spending and Core PCE index
|
USD/INR |
|
83.75 |
83.66 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0839 |
1.0870 |
1.0828 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2896 |
1.2913 |
1.2850 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
153.03 |
154.32 |
151.94 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0850 |
1.0872 |
1.0892 |
1.0914 |
1.0830 |
1.0808 |
1.0788 |
|
USD/JPY |
153.32 |
154.70 |
155.69 |
157.07 |
152.32 |
150.94 |
149.95 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2873 |
1.2896 |
1.2936 |
1.2959 |
1.2833 |
1.2810 |
1.2770 |
|
USD/INR |
83.72 |
83.78 |
83.81 |
|
83.69 |
83.63 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0845/1.08/1.0760 |
1.0950/1.1040 |
SIDE |
DN<1.08 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.28/1.2750 |
1.3050/1.3150 |
SIDE |
DN<1.2615 |
|
USD/JPY |
155.50 |
158/159.75 |
SIDE |
UP>159.75 |
|
USD/INR |
83.56/83.45/83.34 |
83.90/84.02 |
UP |
SIDE<83.56 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8825/0.8730 |
0.9050 |
DN |
UP>0.9050 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.56. 50 day moving average is at 83.49. 200 day moving average is at 83.26. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.56/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.90. Spot closed above the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 83.72, S1:83.69, S2:83.64, R1:83.78, R2:83.80.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.1040. Next major support is at 1.0840/1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying an important bottom at 1.0665. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.2610 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.28/1.2735. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.
USD/YEN: The pair is above 100 and 200 day major moving averages, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 158/159.75 and support is at 155.50.
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