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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • July 29, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR July 29, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.72 on Friday and the pair traded in the 83.71-83.74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.74, loss of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.75.

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RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.72 on 26/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.75, unchanged for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.75. July Euro/INR closed at 90.80, GBP/INR at 107.75 and Yen/INR at 54.57. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.78% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 670.85 bn, as on July 12 th. Reserves climbed by US D 4.2 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (26/07)

USDINR

83.72

EURINR

90.86

GBPINR

107.68

JPYINR

54.48

In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 30824 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 15824 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 428 points (1.26%) on Friday. US S&P climbed 61 points (1.13%). Nikkei declined 0.64% and Hang Seng climbed 0.10% on Friday.

Euro is now at 1.0856, Pound at 1.2869, Yen at 153.77.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2387 and WT1Crude at USD 76.50/Brent at USD 80.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.19% and 3 m libor closed at 5.57%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.05%.

Economic news: US PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in June, matched expectations. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% mom, matched expectations. From the same month one year ago, PCE price index growth slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy, matched expectations. However, core PCE price index was unchanged at 2.6% yoy, above expectation of 2.5% yoy.

Fed, BOE meetings along with US employment data are important events for the week.

Data highlights: – US personal income climbed 0.2% m/m, spending climbed 0.3% m/m and Core PCE index climbed 0.2% m/m.

Monday’s calendar : – No major data.

USD/INR

 

  

 83.74

83.71

EUR/USD

1.0856

  

1.0869

1.0841

GBP/USD

1.2869

  

1.2917

1.2849

USD/JPY

153.77

  

154.33

151.94

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0855

1.0870

1.0883

 

1.0841

1.0827

 

USD/JPY

153.34

154.74

 155.73

 

152.35

150.95

 

GBP/USD

1.2878

1.2907

1.2946

 

1.2839

1.2810

 

USD/INR

83.73

83.75

83.76

 

83.72

83.70

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.08/1.0760

1.0950/1.1040

SIDE

DN<1.08

GBP/USD

1.2770/1.2650

1.3050/1.3150

SIDE

DN<1.2650

USD/JPY

151.50

155.50/157

SIDE

UP>157

USD/INR

83.56/83.45/83.34

83.90/84.02

UP

SIDE<83.56

USD/CHF

0.8730

0.9050

DN

UP>0.9050

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.58. 50 day moving average is at 83.49. 200 day moving average is at 83.27. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.56/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.90. Spot closed above the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 83.73, S1:83.69, S2:83.64, R1:83.78, R2:83.82.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0950/1.1040. Next major support is at 1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0950. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2770/1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 155.50/157 and support is at 151.50.

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