FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR July 3, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.48 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.47-83.56 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.48, gain of 3 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.45.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.51 on 02/07. July USD/INR closed at 83.55, gain of 4 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.51. July Euro/INR closed at 89.65, GBP/INR at 105.65 and Yen/INR at 51.89. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.65% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 653.71 bn, as on June 21 st. Reserves climbed by US D 816 mn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (02/07) |
|
USDINR |
83.51 |
|
EURINR |
89.64 |
|
GBPINR |
105.55 |
|
JPYINR |
51.65 |
In June , FPI’S have bought Rs 24386 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 15616 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 18 points (0.19%) y’day. US S&P climbed 34 points (0.62%). Nikkei climbed 1.24% and Hang Seng climbed 0.29% y’day.
Euro is now at 1.0741, Pound at 1.2683, Yen at 161.60.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2326 and WT1Crude at USD 83/Brent at USD 86.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.43% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7%.
Economic news: Indian June PMI(mfrg) rose to 58.3, up from 57.5 in May.
USD was boosted by prospects of Trump victory. Trump policies may lead to higher inflation due to increase in import tariffs. Higher fiscal deficit policy may also lead to uptick in inflation.
At the ECB forum, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the “quite a big of progress” made in reducing inflation toward 2% target. He also acknowledged the recent inflation readings, stating, “The last reading and the one before it, to a lesser extent, suggest that we are getting back on the disinflationary path.”Powell emphasized the need for Fed to be confident that inflation is sustainably moving toward the 2% target before considering policy easing.
He also cautioned against premature rate cuts, “We’re well aware that if we go too soon, we can undo the good work we’ve done. If we do it too late, we could unnecessarily undermine the recovery and the expansion.”
ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates again following its initial rate cut in June.She highlighted that the central bank is facing “several uncertainties” concerning future inflation. These uncertainties primarily revolve around the dynamics of profits, wages, and productivity, and the potential impact of new supply-side shocks.Lagarde emphasized that it will take time to accumulate sufficient data to be confident that the “risks of above-target inflation have passed.”
Focus is on US employment data.
Data highlights: – US ISM(mfrg) declined to 48.5 and construction spending declined -0.1% m/m.
-EU PMI(mfrg-final) was reported at 45.8. Core CPI climbed 2.9% y/y.
-EU unemployment rate was reported at 6.4%.
-UK PMI(mfrg-final) dipped to 50.9.
Wednesday’s calendar : – US ADP employment report, weekly jobless claims
-US ISM (services) and factory orders
-EU PMI(services), PPI
-UK PMI(services)
|
USD/INR |
|
83.56 |
83.47 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0741 |
1.0749 |
1.0709 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2683 |
1.2692 |
1.2615 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
161.60 |
161.77 |
161.27 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0736 |
1.0763 |
1.0777 |
1.0804 |
1.0723 |
1.0695 |
1.0682 |
|
USD/JPY |
161.51 |
161.75 |
162.01 |
162.25 |
161.25 |
161.01 |
160.74 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2665 |
1.2715 |
1.2742 |
1.2791 |
1.2638 |
1.2588 |
1.2562 |
|
USD/INR |
83.50 |
83.53 |
83.59 |
|
83.49 |
83.41 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0610 |
1.0765/1.09 |
DN |
UP>1.09 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2535 |
1.2740/1.2825 |
UP |
DN<1.2535 |
|
USD/JPY |
158.80 |
162 |
UP |
SIDE<158.80 |
|
USD/INR |
83.34 |
83.70 |
UP |
SIDE<83.30 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8825/0.8730 |
0.9035 |
DN |
UP>0.9035 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.49. 50 day moving average is at 83.44. 200 day moving average is at 83.21. Daily MACD is in sell zone. Important support is at 83.34 and important resistance is at 83.70. Spot closed below the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:
PP: 83.57, S1:83.51, S2:83.48, R1:83.61, R2:83.66.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.60+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0790/1.09. Next major support is at 1.0610. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is between major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2740/1.2825.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 154.55. Important resistance is at 162 and support is at 158.80.
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