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FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX – MORNING UPDATE :
  • By Goodwill
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  • July 31, 2024

FX – MORNING UPDATE :

FX Morning Update USD INR July 31, 2024

USDINR opened at 83.73 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.70-83.74 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.72, loss of 2 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.75.

RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.73 on 30/07. Aug USD/INR closed at 83.79, loss of 2 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.81. Aug Euro/INR closed at 90.78, GBP/INR at 107.61 and Yen/INR at 54332. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.84% p.a.  FX reserves stood at USD 670.85 bn, as on July 12 th. Reserves climbed by US D 4.2 bn w/w.

PAIRS

RBI REF RATE (30/07)

USDINR

83.73

EURINR

90.60

GBPINR

107.59

JPYINR

54.06

In July , FPI’S have bought Rs 30824 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 15824 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.

Benchmark Nifty climbed 21 points (0.09%) y’day. US S&P declined 27 points (0.50%). Nikkei closed flat and Hang Seng declined 1.37% y’day.

Euro is now at 1.0821, Pound at 1.2841, Yen at 152.35.

Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2379 and WT1Crude at USD 75.50/Brent at USD 78.50.

Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.15% and 3 m libor closed at 5.51%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.04%.

Economic news: FOMC meeting outcome is eagerly awaited. Investors expect Fed to hint at back to back rate cuts after first cut in Sept. However, markets can get sold off if Fed Chairman maintains cautious stance.

Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q2 and 0.6% y/y, better than expectation of 0.2% qoq.

Fed, BOE meetings along with US employment data are important events for the week.

Data highlights: – US house price index climbed 6.8% Y/Y and consumer confidence inched higher to 100.3.

Wednesday’s calendar : – US ADP employment report, pending home sales

-EU CPI

USD/INR

 

  

 83.74

83.70

EUR/USD

1.0821

  

1.0836

1.0798

GBP/USD

1.2841

  

1.2865

1.2820

USD/JPY

152.35

  

152.75

152.12

Daily Support/Resistance table

Currency Pairs

Pivot

R1

R2

R3

S1

S2

S3

EURO/USD

1.0817

1.0836

1.0855

1.0874

1.0798

1.0779

1.0760

USD/JPY

153.43

154.45

156.24

157.26

151.64

150.62

148.83

GBP/USD

1.2841

1.2862

1.2886

1.2907

1.2817

1.2796

1.2773

USD/INR

83.72

83.74

83.76

 

83.70

83.68

 

MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE

Currency Pair

Supports

Resistances

Trend

Remarks

EURO/USD

1.08/1.0760

1.0950/1.1040

SIDE

DN<1.08

GBP/USD

1.2770/1.2650

1.3050/1.3150

SIDE

DN<1.2650

USD/JPY

151.50

155.50/157

SIDE

UP>157

USD/INR

83.56/83.45/83.34

83.90/84.02

UP

SIDE<83.56

USD/CHF

0.8730

0.9050

DN

UP>0.9050

Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.61. 50 day moving average is at 83.50. 200 day moving average is at 83.27. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.56/83.34 and important resistance is at 83.90. Spot closed at the average level of the day.

Intraday supports and resistances for July contract are:

PP: 83.80, S1:83.79, S2:83.775, R1:83.81, R2:83.825.             

Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.

However on directional basis, suggest the following:

USD exports be hedged.

CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:

EURO/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.0950/1.1040. Next major support is at 1.08/1.0750. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.0950. Weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.06.

GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.3050 and weekly MACD is in buy zone, implying important bottom at 1.23. Important support is at 1.2770/1.2650. Important resistance is at 1.3050/1.3150.

USD/YEN: The pair is above 200 day major moving average, but below 50 day average. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 162. Important resistance is at 155.50/157 and support is at 151.50.

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