FX – MORNING UPDATE :
FX Morning Update USD INR June 11, 2024
USDINR opened at 83.48 y’day and the pair traded in the 83.48-83.52 range. Spot USDINR closed at 83.50, gain of 1 ps for USD as against prior close of 83.49.
Thank you for reading this post, don't forget to subscribe!RBI reference rate was fixed at 83.49 on 10/06. June USD/INR closed at 83.54, gain of 9 ps for USD as compared to prior day’s close of 83.45. June Euro/INR closed at 89.87, GBP/INR at 106.09 and Yen/INR at 53.40. 1 year USDINR fwd premia was trading at around 1.60% p.a. FX reserves stood at USD 651 bn, as on May 31 st. Reserves climbed by USD 4.8 bn w/w.
|
PAIRS |
RBI REF RATE (10/06) |
|
USDINR |
83.49 |
|
EURINR |
89.78 |
|
GBPINR |
106.14 |
|
JPYINR |
53.14 |
In May till date, FPI’S have sold Rs 16971 Cr of Equities and bought Rs 4669 Cr of debt . In FY 23-24, FII’S have net bought Rs 206279 Cr of Equities and have net bought Rs 123120 Cr of debt.
Benchmark Nifty declined 31 points (0.13%) y’day. US S&P climbed 14 points (0.26%). Nikkei climbed 1.02% and Hang Seng declined 0.59%..
Euro is now at 1.0768, Pound at 1.2734, Yen at 157.20.
Commodities: Gold is now at USD 2300 and WT1Crude at USD 78/Brent at USD 81.50.
Interest rates: USD 10 Yr yield is at 4.45% and 3 m libor closed at 5.59%. Indian 10 yr benchmark yield closed at 7.03%.
Economic news: ECB Governing Council member stressed the importance of caution in making further interest rate cuts, citing ongoing economic uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures. Euro stays pressured on political developments in France.
US CPI and Fed meeting are key focus events for the week.
Data highlights: – EU sentix investor confidence climbed to 0.3.
Tuesday’s calendar : – UK claimant count change and unemployment rate.
|
USD/INR |
|
83.52 |
83.48 |
|
|
EUR/USD |
1.0768 |
1.0782 |
1.0732 |
|
|
GBP/USD |
1.2721 |
1.2738 |
1.2688 |
|
|
USD/JPY |
156.98 |
157.20 |
155.12 |
Daily Support/Resistance table
|
Currency Pairs |
Pivot |
R1 |
R2 |
R3 |
S1 |
S2 |
S3 |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0759 |
1.0786 |
1.0809 |
1.0836 |
1.0736 |
1.0709 |
1.0687 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2717 |
1.2746 |
1.2767 |
1.2796 |
1.2696 |
1.2667 |
1.2646 |
|
USD/JPY |
156.99 |
157.26 |
157.47 |
157.74 |
156.78 |
156.51 |
156.31 |
|
USD/INR |
83.50 |
83.52 |
83.54 |
|
83.48 |
83.46 |
|
MAJOR SUPPORTS/RESISTANCES AND TREND TABLE
|
Currency Pair |
Supports |
Resistances |
Trend |
Remarks |
|
EURO/USD |
1.0735 |
1.09 |
DN |
UP>1.09 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.2635/1.2575/1.2535 |
1.2825 |
UP |
DN<1.2535 |
|
USD/JPY |
154.50 |
157.80/160 |
UP |
SIDE<154.50 |
|
USD/INR |
82.95/82.85 |
83.52/83.70 |
SIDE |
UP>83.55 |
|
USD/CHF |
0.8885 |
0.9150/0.9295 |
UP |
SIDE<0.90 |
Technicals: Spot closed above 50 and 200 day moving averages.20 day moving average is at 83.40. 50 day moving average is at 83.39. 200 day moving average is at 83.17. Daily MACD is in buy zone. Important support is at 83.05/82.95 and important resistance is at 83.55/83.70. Spot closed at the average level of the day.
Intraday supports and resistances for June contract are:
PP: 83.53, S1:83.50, S2:83.45, R1:83.57, R2:83.61.
Hedging strategy: Hedging decisions be taken according to comfort and accounting rates.
However on directional basis, suggest the following:
USD exports be hedged at 83.55+.
CROSS CURRENCY TECHNICALS:
EURO/USD: The pair is below major moving averages. Major resistance is at 1.09. Next major support is at 1.0735. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying an important top at 1.09. Weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.1140.
GBP/USD: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2825 and weekly MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 1.2895. Important support is at 1.2535. Important resistance is at 1.2825.
USD/YEN: The pair is above major moving averages. Daily MACD is in sell zone, implying important top at 157.75. Important resistance is at 157.80/ 160 and support is at 154.50.
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